Democrats are heading into the 2026 midterms with a lead of seven to eight points on the generic congressional ballot. The forecasters at 50+1 give them a 98% chance of taking the House. Even here, Donald Trump is 10 points underwater, and he's down 19 on the economy.
So what happens if that wave reaches Utah?
Probably not much. That's by design.
The latest episode of "Special Session" walks through our model of all 90 legislative races on the ballot this November.
The problem for Democrats is the map. Utah's legislative districts pack Democratic voters into a handful of safe seats. Republicans are spread across dozens of districts where they win comfortably without running up the score.
A seven-point Democratic wave in November makes a few House races more competitive, but doesn't flip a single state Senate seat.
Also on the episode:
- New Utah polling. Gov. Spencer Cox's approval has dropped 23 points since April. Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson's fight with the DOJ over Utah's voter rolls is popular with voters.
- Sen. John Curtis calls for an investigation into Donald Trump Jr.'s ties to a Russian oligarch.
- Why Trump's ban on CNN, MSNOW and Politico is unconstitutional
Listen and subscribe to the full episode at this link or on YouTube.
