Republicans are still heavily favored to keep control of the Utah House, but Democratic candidates have spent the fall closing in, according to Utah Political Watch’s final House ratings before the Nov. 3 election.
The ratings draw on the final pre-election campaign finance reports, which cover fundraising through Oct. 22, and on the national political environment, where Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by about 9 points. Democratic candidates in race after race this fall raised money at a pace that matched or beat their Republican opponents, and the national mood is showing up in districts that looked safe a few months ago.
Eleven of the 75 House districts changed ratings in this final update. For the third update in a row, every change moved toward Democrats.
We rated all 75 Utah House districts. Here's which races actually matter in 2026.
Four Republican-held seats moved into toss-up territory. Four more moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and one moved from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Two Democratic seats that Republicans had targeted are now rated more secure for Democrats.
In August, the map had no toss-ups, and Republicans were favored in 61 seats. In September, they were favored in 57, with three toss-ups. Now they are favored in 53, with seven toss-ups. All 21 rating changes since August have moved toward Democrats.
Full supporting data for every Senate district—including 2024 and 2020 presidential results, voter registration breakdowns, historical legislative race results, and detailed methodology—is available exclusively to Utah Political Watch paid subscribers.