Republicans will control the Utah Legislature after Nov. 3. The open question is whether a national Democratic surge could threaten the Republican supermajority in the Utah House that has stood for more than 30 years.
Democrats lead the national generic congressional ballot by about 9 points, and Utah Political Watch’s race ratings have moved with it. Every change since August has favored Democrats. The House map has gone from zero toss-ups to seven. The Senate has gone from one competitive race to three.
The number to watch is 50. That is how many House seats Republicans need to keep their two-thirds supermajority, which lets them override a governor’s veto and put constitutional amendments on the ballot without a single Democratic vote. The last time House Republicans did not hold a two-thirds supermajority was after the 1992 midterms, when they controlled 49 seats.
Republicans are favored in 53 seats. Democrats could win all seven toss-ups, and Republicans would still hold the supermajority. To break it, Democrats would also have to flip four seats that currently lean Republican.
These are the races that will decide how close they get.
We rated all 75 Utah House districts. Here's which races actually matter in 2026.
SENATE
1. Senate District 5: Jill Koford (R) vs. CJ Hernandez (D)
Rating: Toss-up
This is the state’s most competitive Senate race and one of its most expensive. Republican Sen. Ann Millner is retiring, and both parties are spending heavily on the race. The Senate Republicans’ campaign committee alone gave Koford $20,000. Hernandez received more than $40,000 from two Democratic PACs. Hernandez has raised more over the full general election, but Koford entered the final weeks with about six times as much cash. If Democrats pick up a Senate seat anywhere in Utah, this is the likeliest one.
Which Utah Senate races could be competitive in 2026? Find out with our exclusive ratings.
2. Senate District 11: Emily Buss (Forward) vs. Brooks Benson (R) Rating: Lean Republican
This is the most unusual race on the ballot. Buss, a Forward Party member, was appointed to the seat after Sen. Daniel Thatcher switched parties and resigned. The Democratic nominee withdrew, so Democratic-leaning voters are expected to back Buss. An outside group has spent $206,000 supporting Benson and attacking Buss, several times what either candidate has raised.
3. Senate District 19: Kirk Cullimore (R) vs. Shana Anderson (D) Rating: Lean Republican
The money in this race is lopsided. Cullimore has more than $200,000 on hand, and Anderson has about $1,300. But SD19 votes almost exactly like the average Utah legislative district, and it’s the kind of seat that moves in a wave year. If Anderson is within a few points, the Democratic surge is real.
A few results will tell you early what kind of night it is:
If Democrats are winning HD26 and HD10, they're getting the seats they were expected to compete for. That alone doesn't threaten the supermajority.
If they're also close in HD39 and HD59, the wave is reaching seats where Republicans had real advantages, either in money or voter registration.
If HD43 or SD19 is close, the wave is reaching places where Democrats barely had a campaign. That's when the supermajority comes into play.
UTAH HOUSE: THE TOSS-UPS
4. House District 26: Matt MacPherson (R) vs. Michael Finch (D) Rating: Toss-up
This is the most Democratic-leaning Republican seat in the House. Democrats made it a priority, and Republicans spent heavily to defend MacPherson. In the final stretch, Finch raised nearly 10 times as much as MacPherson and outspent him. If Democrats flip one House seat, this is the likeliest candidate.
5. House District 59: Luke Searle (R) vs. Celeste Johnson (D) Rating: Toss-up
On paper, this open seat shouldn’t be close. Voter registration leans heavily Republican. But Johnson has outraised Searle all fall and finished with about three times as much cash. It’s a test of whether money and a national wave can overcome a registration gap in a Republican district.
6. House District 39: Ken Ivory (R) vs. Drew Howells (D)
Rating: Toss-up
Ivory is one of the better-known Republicans in the Legislature, and Democrats have targeted him all cycle. Republicans have spent to protect him, and he finished with about eight times as much cash as Howells. Republicans typically win about 59% of the vote here. If Ivory loses, it’s a sign the wave has reached well beyond the obvious Democratic targets.
7. House District 27: Anthony Loubet (R) vs. Liz Oates (D)
Rating: Toss-up
Oates started the summer with almost nothing and ended up raising nearly as much as the incumbent. Republicans typically win about 56% of the vote here, close enough that the national environment makes it a coin flip.
8. House District 42: Clint Okerlund (R) vs. Iva Williams (D)
Rating: Toss-up
Kamala Harris carried this Republican-held district in 2024, so the race is a test whether voters who rejected Donald Trump will also back a Democrat for the Legislature. Williams outraised Okerlund by nearly 4-to-1 in the final reporting period.
9. House District 4: Tiara Auxier (R) vs. Zane Woolstenhulme (D) Rating: Toss-up
Woolstenhulme outraised the incumbent nearly three to one in October, and the two finished close on cash. It’s a much quieter race than some on this list, which may make it a better gauge of the national environment on its own.
10. House District 3: Jason Thompson (R) vs. Patrick Belmont (Unaffiliated)
Rating: Toss-up
There’s no Democrat on the ballot, but Belmont is one of the most persistent challengers in the state. This is his third run for the seat. He lost by about 1,200 votes in 2024 and about 1,400 in 2022. No unaffiliated candidate has ever won a seat in the Utah Legislature. Thompson has far more money, but a Belmont win would be one of the night’s biggest stories.
OTHER LEGISLATIVE RACES TO WATCH
11. House District 43: Steve Eliason (R) vs. Ofa Matagi (D)
Rating: Lean Republican
Harris won this district by 5.6 points in 2024, the larger of her two wins in Republican-held House seats. Eliason has a huge financial advantage over a challenger who has raised almost nothing. A close finish would show how far a wave can carry an underfunded Democrat.
12. House District 10: Rosemary Lesser (D) vs. Jim Alvey (R)
Rating: Lean Democratic
This is one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities. Lesser previously held the seat and is trying to win it back from Republicans. She out-raised Alvey this fall but spent most of it, and Alvey finished with nearly twice as much cash. A Lesser win would cut into the supermajority before any toss-up is decided.
BEYOND THE LEGISLATURE
13. Amendment B
This proposed constitutional amendment would require 60% of the vote, instead of a simple majority, to pass any statewide citizen initiative that raises taxes or creates a new tax to pay for itself.
Public opinion has swung sharply against the measure over the last month, going from 50% support in September to 56% opposition in October. Millions of dollars in outside spending against the measure drove part of that shift.
13. Salt Lake County Council
Republicans hold a 5-4 majority on the council. Three of the four seats on the ballot are Republican-held, and none of those three incumbents is running. If Democrats flip just one seat, they take the majority for the next two years.
- At Large A: Salt Lake County GOP delegates dumped incumbent Laurie Stringham at their convention in favor of Kathleen Anderson, who faces Democrat Zach Robinson.
- District 3: Republican Aimee Winder Newton is not seeking another term. Republican Mike Bird faces Luke Maynes.
- District 5: Incumbent Sheldon Stewart is retiring. GOP nominee Traci Crockett faces Democrat Sara Cimmers.
The only Democratic-held seat on the ballot is District 1, where incumbent Jiro Johnson faces Libertarian nominee Casey Poe. No Republican is running.
14. Davis County Commission Seat B
Republican nominee Susan Lee defeated incumbent Larene Kamalu in the June primary and now faces unaffiliated candidate Bret Millburn.
Lee is the mother of former GOP Rep. Trevor Lee, who resigned in September after he was charged with multiple felonies for mortage fraud and forgery. Since then, Lee has tried to distance herself from her son, going so far as to remove a photo of them together from her campaign website. Whether his legal troubles cost her votes is unclear.
15. Judicial retention elections
Retention elections rarely draw attention, but Republicans are campaigning to oust Utah Supreme Court Associate Chief Justice Jill Pohlman. She joined the court’s unanimous 2024 decision in the redistricting lawsuit, which held that lawmakers overstepped their constitutional authority when they repealed Prop. 4, the citizen initiative that created an independent redistricting commission.
Republicans also targeted former Justice Diana Hagen, who resigned after legislative leaders called for an independent investigation into allegations that she had an affair with an attorney for the plaintiffs in the redistricting lawsuit. The Judicial Conduct Commission had earlier dismissed those claims.
