There's a dynamic playing out in Montana's U.S. Senate race that should be familiar to Utahns: an independent candidate is outpolling the Democrat in a three-way contest, and beats the Republican outright—but only if the Democrat drops out of the race entirely.
It's the exact playbook Utah Democrats ran in 2022, clearing the field for Evan McMullin to take on Mike Lee one-on-one. McMullin lost, but he came closer to beating a Utah Republican senator than any Democrat had in 30 years.
On the latest episode of Special Session, we sit down with G. Elliott Morris to break down the numbers behind this trend and what it means heading into 2026. Morris is the former lead data editor at 538, and now runs the election-data newsletter Strength in Numbers and the forecasting site 50 Plus One.
We cover:
- Why Montana's independent, Seth Bodnar, is outperforming the Democrat in a race against Republican Kurt Alme, and why that only works if the Democrat drops out.
- The same pattern in Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborne now leads the Republican incumbent.
- The political science behind why voters break from their party once the "D" or "R" disappears from the ballot.
- Trump's approval numbers sliding even in red states like Utah, and why.
- Morris's 2026 forecast: 85% odds Democrats retake the House, 55% for the Senate.
- How redistricting has already cost Democrats an estimated six House seats nationally.
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