Republicans hold enough seats in the Utah Legislature that November won't change who's in charge. What it could change is the size of their supermajorities, and campaign finance filings show exactly which races both parties think are winnable.
Follow the campaign cash, and a short list of targeted races comes into focus. The Utah House Republican Election Committee and House Speaker Mike Schultz's leadership PAC are spending heavily in a handful of districts, aiming to shore up vulnerable incumbents and pick up a seat or two to widen the GOP's advantage. The Utah House Democratic Leadership Council is spending too, just not on the same scale.
HOUSE RACES
HD09 — Incumbent Republican Jake Sawyer has taken in $5,000 from the Utah House Republican Election Committee and $10,000 from Schultz's leadership PAC, cash meant to counter a wave of small-dollar donations to Democratic challenger Angela Choberka. Choberka has raised more than $12,500 from 110 individual donations since mid-June. Sawyer's $21,250 over that same period has come entirely from corporations and PACs.
The seat is rated "Likely Republican" in our House race ratings, but the Utah Competitiveness Index suggests it could be competitive for a Democrat.
Subscribe to Special Session.
Utah politics: straight talk, no spin.
New episodes drop weekly.
HD10 — This was one of the most expensive contests in 2024, when Republican Jill Koford beat Democrat Rosemary Lesser by just over 300 votes after the two campaigns spent more than $290,000 combined. Lesser is running again; Koford isn't—she's seeking the open Senate seat in District 5 instead.
Republicans are pouring money in behind Jim Alvey, who faced a steep cash deficit against Lesser after winning the nomination. Alvey has since raised more than $45,000, most of it from just two donations: $20,000 from the House GOP Election PAC and $15,000 from Schultz's leadership PAC.
Lesser entered June with more than $40,000 cash on hand and has raised another $56,000 since. The House Democratic Leadership Council has given her campaign $5,000.
The race is rated "Lean Democrat."
HD26 — This is shaping up to be one of the most competitive House races in the 2026 cycle. Incumbent Republican Matt MacPherson, seeking his second full term, beat his Democratic opponent by fewer than 1,000 votes two years ago.
The House Republican PAC has put $30,000 behind him and Schultz's PAC has added $20,000. Those two donations account for nearly 80% of everything MacPherson has raised since mid-June. House Democrats have given his challenger, Michael Finch, $5,000.
MacPherson's incumbency is the main reason HD26 is rated "Lean Republican," but the Utah Competitiveness Index shows the underlying dynamics give the Democratic candidate a fighting chance to flip the seat.
HD27 — The House GOP PAC and Schultz's leadership PAC have each given $10,000 to Republican incumbent Anthony Loubet. Democratic challenger Liz Oates has raised more than $35,000 since mid-June, including $2,500 from the House Democrats' PAC.
The race is rated "Likely R," though the Utah Competitiveness Index suggests it's closer than that rating implies.
HD30 — Republicans clearly see this as a pickup opportunity. Republican Dave Parke holds a 2.2-to-1 fundraising edge over incumbent Democrat Jake Fitisemanu—enough of an advantage that we moved the race to "Lean Republican" in our most recent ratings update.
House Republicans and Schultz's leadership PAC have each given Parke $10,000; Gov. Spencer Cox kicked in another $5,000. House Democrats have contributed $4,000 to Fitisemanu's campaign.
HD35 — Republicans may see an opening here too, though a narrower one than in other districts. The House GOP PAC and Schultz's leadership PAC have each given $5,000 to Republican candidate Monique Ketcham.
Democratic incumbent Rosalba Dominguez hasn't raised any money since her mid-June report, when she disclosed just $977 cash on hand. The heavily Democratic seat is rated "Lean D."
HD44 — The House GOP and Schultz's PAC have donated a combined $45,000 to Republican incumbent Jordan Teuscher, $25,000 of it for his primary against Scott Stephenson. Teuscher now holds a wide cash advantage over Democrat Jess Birtcher heading into November.
HD59 — Donations in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Mike Kohler suggest this contest could be unexpectedly competitive in November.
Republican Luke Searle is coming off a bruising primary, where he won the nomination by just 627 votes. House Republicans and Schultz's PAC donated $10,000 and $5,000, respectively, to his campaign last month.
Democrat Celeste Johnson has slightly outraised Searle since mid-June, pulling in more than $25,000 in campaign cash. The two PAC donations are the only reason Searle has kept pace.
The race is rated "Lean Republican," but the Utah Competitiveness Index gives Johnson a realistic shot at flipping the seat in November.
If you have a news tip that we should investigate, email us at tips@utahpolitics.news or send your tip through our secure online form.
SENATE RACES
The Utah Republican Senate Campaign Committee has directed most of its big money this cycle toward three incumbents who faced tough primaries: $55,000 each to Sens. Brady Brammer and Dan McCay, and $40,000 to Senate President Stuart Adams. Adams and McCay both lost anyway.
The committee also gave $15,000 to Sen. Scott Sandall's race in SD01, which is curious given Sandall reported more than $100,000 cash on hand in his most recent disclosure. Sandall's seat is rated "Safe Republican."
Adams runs his own leadership PAC, like Schultz. Its only spending this cycle was more than $165,000 in cash and in-kind support for his own primary campaign, which he lost.
