Every rating change in Utah Political Watch’s latest update of the 2026 state Senate map moves toward Democrats. For the first time since we began publishing ratings, one race is a genuine toss-up.
Four of the 15 seats on the November ballot shifted left in our latest race ratings. Three Republican-held seats moved into more competitive territory, while one is now a genuine toss-up heading into November.
Which Utah Senate races could be competitive in 2026? Find out with our exclusive ratings.
The shifts were driven by fundraising. In several races, Democratic candidates are raising money at a pace that rivals or exceeds their Republican opponents.
The national environment also played a part. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 51.1% to 43.2%, a margin of nearly 8 points, and have outperformed in special elections across the country this cycle. Utah’s legislative map is more insulated from national swings than most, but it isn’t immune.
Here's what changed, and why.