A Democrat is leading in a Utah House district Donald Trump won by almost 11 points in 2024, according to an internal poll obtained by Utah Political Watch.
The poll shows former Midway Mayor Celeste Johnson ahead of Republican Luke Searle 43%-34% in House District 59. Another 14% of respondents were undecided, and 10% said they would vote for someone else, though Johnson and Searle are the only names on the ballot. Democratic polling firm FM3 surveyed 322 likely voters Aug. 20-26. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.
Johnson's nine-point lead is not a safe one. With only 322 respondents, the poll's 5.5-point margin of error is wide enough that the gap between the candidates could be much narrower. Still, the result suggests Johnson is competitive in a district that has favored Republicans.
Republicans have won the last two elections in HD59 by at least 17 points, and about 48% of registered voters are Republicans, compared with 17% who are Democrats. Utah Political Watch rates the race Lean Republican in its 2026 ratings.
The seat is open because three-term Republican Rep. Mike Kohler is not seeking re-election. HD59 covers all of Wasatch County and part of Park City. Johnson served two terms as Midway's mayor. Searle teaches at Wasatch High School and sits on the Wasatch County Council.
Trump carried the district 54.4% to 43.5% in 2024, but in the poll 59% of respondents view him unfavorably and 40% favorably, a net rating of -19. More than half, 53%, hold a "very unfavorable" view, more than double the 24% with a "very favorable" one.
A recent Noble Predictive Insights survey found a similar pattern statewide: 54% of Utahns disapprove of Trump, including 41% who strongly disapprove, while 43% approve.
Gov. Spencer Cox fares worse in the FM3 poll. Sixty-eight percent of respondents view him unfavorably and 29% favorably, a net rating of -39. Nearly two-thirds, 64%, said "things in their part of Utah" are headed in the wrong direction.
Searle said a poll taken six weeks ago does not reflect the race as it stands now.
"Voters in HD59 aren't telling me about national politics. They're telling me about rising property taxes and wanting decisions about our valley made here, not at the state capitol," Searle said in an email. "That's what this race is about, and I believe I will win."
Searle said his own internal polling shows him ahead of Johnson 39%-32%. He did not respond to a request to share those results. Johnson did not respond to a request for comment.
Republican groups are spending big to protect the seat. Searle won the June primary by just 627 votes. Since then, the Utah House Republican Election Committee PAC has given him $5,000, House Speaker Mike Schultz's PAC has given $10,000 and the Wasatch County GOP has given $3,000. Those three contributions, totaling $18,000, make up more than half of what Searle has raised since the primary.
Johnson, who did not face a primary, has raised nearly $55,000 since the end of June. Her largest donors this cycle include the Utah Women and Politics PAC ($10,000) and the political action committee for redistricting reform group Better Boundaries ($3,500).
