A new poll suggests three Utah legislative incumbents are in real trouble heading into Tuesday’s Republican primary.
The surveys from State Navigate, released Monday morning, show Sens. Dan McCay and Brady Brammer and Rep. Jordan Teuscher trailing their challengers. The online polls sampled likely Republican primary voters, with margins of error between 5.1 and 7.4 percentage points.
Senate District 18
Rep. Doug Fiefia nearly knocked off Sen. Dan McCay at April’s Utah Republican Party convention, where McCay survived by two votes. The new polling points to Fiefia poised to finish the job Tuesday.
The survey has Fiefia up 63% to 22%, with 14% undecided. Among those who have already voted, he leads 75% to 21%.
Senate District 21
Sen. Brady Brammer won a 2024 special election to replace Mike Kennedy, now in Congress. To keep the seat, he has some climbing to do. Challenger Kelly Smith leads 44% to 37%, with 20% undecided.
Smith’s edge comes from moderate and anti-Trump Republicans: she takes 76% of moderates to Brammer’s 9%, and among Republicans who oppose Donald Trump, Smith leads 70% to 12%.
House District 44
Rep. Jordan Teuscher sponsored HB267, the union-busting bill lawmakers rammed through in 2025—then hastily repealed late last year to avoid a referendum after unions gathered enough signatures for the 2026 ballot.
Despite the repeal, that vote may still cost Teuscher his seat.
Scott Stephenson, who leads Utah’s Fraternal Order of Police, has cited HB267 as a reason he’s challenging Teuscher for the GOP nomination.
The State Navigate poll has Stephenson ahead 47% to 37%, a 10-point lead, with 16% undecided.
State Navigate also released polling for several other Tuesday primaries:
Senate District 6
Kaysville Mayor Tami Tran leads by 36 points, 56% to 20%, over Robert Wanlass in the race to replace retiring Sen. Jerry Stephenson.
House District 14
Kara Toone narrowly leads John Taylor 43% to 37% in the race for the Republican nomination to replace GOP Rep. Karianne Lisonbee.
House District 17
Lili Bitner leads Sam Barlow by 43 points, 61% to 18%. 28% are undecided.
Incumbent Rep. Stewart Barlow, Sam’s father, is not seeking another term.
House District 48
This one’s a coin flip: About two-thirds are still undecided. Among decided voters, 19% back businessman Jake Hunsaker and 14% support Nik Anderson.
Note: Surveys were conducted online among likely Republican primary voters. Samples varied by district; margins of error ranged from 5.1 to 7.4 points. Low-turnout primaries can break late.
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