Utah Senate map gets its first toss-up as four races shift toward Democrats

Every rating change in Utah Political Watch’s latest update of the 2026 state Senate map moves toward Democrats. For the first time since we began publishing ratings, one race is a genuine toss-up.

Four of the 15 seats on the November ballot shifted left in our latest race ratings. Three Republican-held seats moved into more competitive territory, while one is now a genuine toss-up heading into November.

Which Utah Senate races could be competitive in 2026? Find out with our exclusive ratings.

2026 Utah Senate race ratings

The shifts were driven by fundraising. In several races, Democratic candidates are raising money at a pace that rivals or exceeds their Republican opponents.

The national environment also played a part. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 51.1% to 43.2%, a margin of nearly 8 points, and have outperformed in special elections across the country this cycle. Utah’s legislative map is more insulated from national swings than most, but it isn’t immune.

Here's what changed, and why.

This open seat has become the most expensive general election Senate race on the map.

From June 12 through Sept. 25, Democrat Christina “CJ” Hernandez raised $49,745, more than double the $21,950 raised by Republican Jill Koford. Since then, Koford has brought in $73,101 and Hernandez $56,659. Across the full general-election period, Hernandez leads roughly $106,400 to $95,050, though Koford likely holds the larger cash reserve heading into the final weeks.

The Utah Republican Senate Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of Senate Republicans, gave Koford $20,000 on Oct. 1. She also received $15,000 from the Northern Utah Legislative PAC, $5,000 from the Weber County Republican Party and $4,000 from Gershon Barnett, who has ties to the Military Installation Development Authority. Two Democratic PACs gave Hernandez $27,500 and $15,000. Party committees typically don’t spend it on seats they consider safe.

Another tight race adds to the shift. In House District 10, Democrat Rosemary Lesser faces Republican Jim Alvey. Koford beat Lesser by just over 300 votes in 2024, and Lesser is favored to win the seat back. Because 36% of HD10 voters live in SD5, many of the voters who back Lesser are likely to support Hernandez too.

SD5 also has the only Democratic-leaning score on our Utah Competitiveness Index among Republican-held Senate seats, though Donald Trump carried it with just under 56% in 2024. It’s a toss-up.

Republican Brooks Benson’s fundraising surge was one reason we kept this seat at Likely Republican last time. That edge is gone. Benson outraised Forward Party incumbent Emily Buss over the summer, $27,900 to $25,977, but spent most of it and ended the period with $5,013 on hand. Buss has $26,825, more than five times as much, for the final stretch.

The district’s Republican lean still give Benson the edge, but a narrower one.

Democrat Kandee Myers started the summer with no money and raised $35,677, topping incumbent Republican Brady Brammer’s $21,770. Brammer spent roughly $89,000 over the period, much of it likely on his bruising primary, and has $23,329 on hand.

SD21 remains one of the most Republican seats in the state, and Brammer is still favored. But a challenger outraising an incumbent in a seat this red is notable.

Incumbent Democrat Karen Kwan has $83,156 on hand. Her Republican opponent, Deidre Tyler, raised $650 over the entire summer and has $382 left. There is no active Republican campaign here.

Republican Stephanie Hollist raised $112,061 this period to Democrat Garret Rushforth’s $4,211, a gap that would normally justify a Safe Republican rating. But most of Hollist’s money came from her own funds or her father. Much of her roughly $145,000 in spending likely went to the June primary, where she defeated Senate President Stuart Adams.

SD7 stays Likely Republican for now.