Every change in Utah Political Watch’s latest House race ratings points the same way: toward Democrats.
Ten of the 75 districts shifted in this update, and all ten moved left. Three Republican-held seats are now toss-ups. A Democratic-held seat we had leaning Republican is back in the Democratic column. Several others that looked comfortable for Republicans this summer are now competitive.
Most of the movement comes from the latest campaign finance disclosures. Democratic candidates who had little or no money over the summer have caught up, and in some districts they are outraising their Republican opponents. Republicans, meanwhile, are spending heavily to defend seats that shouldn’t need defending in a state this red. That spending suggests the party sees more risk than the map implies.
We rated all 75 Utah House districts. Here's which races actually matter in 2026.
The national environment matters, too. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by nearly 8 points and have overperformed in special elections across the country this cycle. Utah’s gerrymandered legislative maps insulate it from those swings, but this update suggests the effect is starting to reach the state.
Republicans are still favored to keep control of the House and their supermajority. But their margin for error is shrinking.
Three seats move to Toss-up
HD26: Lean Republican → Toss-up. Republicans are working to protect incumbent Matt MacPherson, who raised $99,301 this period and has $107,674 on hand. That is the kind of money a campaign raises when its party is worried.
Democrat Michael Finch raised $39,064 and has $32,739, enough to run a competitive race. Since the reporting period ended, Democrats and Democratic-aligned PACs have donated heavily to his campaign. Democrats have made flipping this seat a priority, and MacPherson faces real unpopularity in the district.
HD39: Lean Republican → Toss-up. The same pattern is playing out in HD39, where Republicans are putting money in to prop up incumbent Ken Ivory. In the last two weeks, the Utah House Republican Election PAC, the main fundraising vehicle for House Republicans, gave Ivory $10,000. House Speaker Mike Schultz’s PAC added $5,000, and House Majority Leader Casey Snider gave $1,000.
Democrat Drew Howells raised $18,663 this period. Ivory’s last two elections were close, and Democrats are targeting the seat. In this national environment, we see it as a coin flip.
HD59: Lean Republican → Toss-up. This open seat was already on our watch list, and Democrat Celeste Johnson now leads on every financial measure. She raised $46,489 this period to Republican Luke Searle’s $33,224 and has more cash on hand, $25,396 to $19,206.
Since the reporting period ended, Democratic-aligned PACs have given her campaign nearly $50,000. The district covers Wasatch County and parts of Park City, and Republican voter registration there runs nearly three to one.
One seat moves back to Democrats
HD30: Lean Republican → Lean Democratic. We had rated this Democratic-held seat as leaning Republican only because the GOP challenger had out-raised the incumbent earlier. That advantage is gone.
Democratic incumbent Jake Fitisemanu and Republican Dave Parke raised nearly identical amounts this period, $50,742 and $51,404. Fitisemanu now has more cash on hand, $30,402 to $22,399, and Democratic groups and PACs have given him nearly $25,000 since the last reporting period.
Gov. Spencer Cox has given Parke $20,000 this cycle: $10,000 at the end of September and $10,000 earlier this year, in two $5,000 donations. It is the most Cox has given any legislative candidate.
With incumbency on Fitisemanu’s side and the national environment favoring Democrats, the seat moves back into the Democratic column.
Three seats move from Likely to Lean Republican
HD27. Democrat Liz Oates began the summer with about $3,500 and raised $48,072 this period, close to incumbent Anthony Loubet’s $59,419. Loubet has more cash on hand, $48,907 to $32,391) but this is now a fully funded race in a district where Republicans typically win just 56% of the vote.
Since the end of September, Schultz’s PAC has given Loubet $10,000. Democratic groups, led by Elevate Utah’s PAC, have given Oates nearly $20,000.
HD62. Democrat David Chappell outraised incumbent Norm Thurston by roughly three to one this period, $24,827 to $8,471. Thurston still holds a large cash advantage, $35,078 to $8,075.
HD09. Democrat Angela Choberka raised $20,339, nearly matching incumbent Jake Sawyer’s $22,951. Sawyer has more cash on hand, $20,517 to $12,241.
Both have received sizable donations since early October. The Utah Donors Collaborative, which pools money mainly for Democratic candidates, gave Choberka $15,000 on Oct. 2. The Northern Utah Legislative PAC, controlled by Snider, gave Sawyer $7,500.
Two other seats move
HD38: Safe Republican → Likely Republican. There’s no Democrat on the ballot here, but that doesn’t mean the race uncontested. Unaffiliated candidate Sergio Sotelo has strong union support and has raised $26,141 this period. He has $28,461 on hand, not far behind Republican Chris McConnehey’s $37,803.
HD31: Lean Democratic → Likely Democratic. Democratic incumbent Verona Mauga has $19,176 on hand. Her Republican opponent raised just $295 this period.
HD36: Safe Republican → Lean Republican. Incumbent Jim Dunnigan ran unopposed in 2024, but the district is more competitive than that suggests. He won in 2022 by just 1,273 votes, and Donald Trump carried the district with only 51.9% in 2024.
Democrat Blake Townsend became the nominee in August after the previous candidate withdrew.
On the district’s voting history alone, this would be a toss-up. What keeps it Lean Republican is money and time. Dunnigan has $172,119 on hand to Townsend’s $6,680, and Townsend has much less time to introduce himself to voters.
Two Democratic seats we’re holding despite the money
Not every fundraising report favored Democrats. In HD37, Republican Casey Saxton outraised Democratic incumbent Ashlee Matthews $60,388 to $26,273 and has roughly three times as much cash on hand.
Since the end of September, Schultz’s PAC and the House Republican PAC have given Saxton a combined $25,000, a sign Republicans plan to go on offense and flip this seat in November. House Democrats gave Matthews $5,000 at the start of October.
In HD35, Republican Monique Ketcham outraised Democratic incumbent Rosalba Dominguez by about two to one.
On money alone, both races could move toward Republicans. We’re holding both at Lean Democratic because of the national environment, but they are the two Democratic seats most worth watching.
Other races worth noting
In HD10, the Republican money we expected showed up: Jim Alvey raised $72,095. But Democrat Rosemary Lesser, a former incumbent, still has more cash on hand, $66,870 to $50,389, and the seat stays Lean Democratic.
HD03 stays Lean Republican, but only barely. Unaffiliated candidate Patrick Belmont, who lost this seat by about 1,200 votes in 2024 and 1,400 in 2022, raised $34,235 and has $36,782 on hand.
The updated House map:
What this means for the supermajority
Republicans are now favored in 57 House seats, down from 61 in our previous update. The supermajority threshold is 50.
If Democrats win all three toss-ups and seven of the eight Lean Republican seats, Republicans would land at exactly 50, right on the line. Losing one more seat beyond that would break the supermajority.
That is still unlikely. It would require Democrats to win nearly every competitive race on the map. But two months ago, the path to breaking the supermajority ran through seats that looked out of reach. Now it runs through the Lean Republican tier.