Utah convention preview: It's grudge match Saturday in Utah politics

Utah's Republican and Democratic conventions are on tap Saturday—GOP delegates at Utah Valley University in Orem, Democrats at Jordan High School—and at least one powerful lawmaker could have a very uncomfortable afternoon.

Here are the six races worth watching.

Senate President Stuart Adams has faced criticism after he helped push through a change to state law that benefitted a family member. Saturday, he finds out if delegates noticed.

Adams has never faced a primary in his legislative career. That streak is over after he and challenger Stephanie Hollist both qualified for the June ballot through signature gathering, so neither can be knocked out Saturday. But if Adams finishes second or third in the delegate vote, it will be a significant rebuke of one of the most powerful Republicans in the Utah Legislature.

Adams helped push through a 2024 law allowing prosecutors to treat certain 18-year-olds accused of child rape as juveniles in limited circumstances. The change came after Adams' step-granddaughter, who was 18 at the time, was charged with four felonies for having sex with a 13-year-old. The law wasn't retroactive, but it was cited as a major factor in her being offered a plea deal on lesser charges.

Braden Hess and Jennifer Garner are also in the race, each hoping to clear the 40% threshold to join Adams and Hollist on the June ballot. Garner forced Rep. Stewart Barlow into a primary in HD17 in 2024 after beating him at convention.

Whoever wins in June will be a heavy favorite in November. Utah Political Watch rates SD7 as "Likely Republican."

Conventional wisdom says Phil Lyman should force Rep. Celeste Maloy into a primary on Saturday. The delegate crowd is expected to be pro-Lyman on Saturday. He beat Spencer Cox handily at the 2024 convention before losing to him in a closer-than-expected gubernatorial primary.

After his 2024 primary loss, he and his supporters claimed, without evidence, that Cox had not legitimately qualified for the primary, that the election was somehow fraudulent, and filed a cascade of lawsuits challenging the results. Whether delegates have tired of his antics is the real question on Saturday.

Lyman has long been a champion of rural Utah, but his recent attacks on immigration and H1B visas have angered some farmers and ranchers, which could prove troublesome for him on Saturday.

Lyman needs 40% to force a primary. He'll probably get it. Maloy has already qualified through signatures.

Blake Moore has lost the delegate vote at every Republican convention where he's been a candidate. He finished second to Kerry Gibson in 2020, lost to Andrew Badger in 2022, and lost to Paul Miller in 2024. That could happen again on Saturday, but it won't matter. He's qualified for the June primary through signature gathering. Whatever happens at UVU, he's already on the ballot.

Moore is being challenged by state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee, who is tying Moore to his work with Better Boundaries, the group that put the original Prop. 4 redistricting initiative on the 2018 ballot, and to the subsequent litigation that threw out Utah's four safe-Republican-seat congressional map and replaced it with the current configuration that includes the Democratic-leaning 1st District centered on Salt Lake County.

Lisonbee's supporters have branded Moore "Salt Lake Blake" because he lives in the 1st District rather than the 2nd, which he represents. That would be a decent taunt if Utah didn't have a long and well-documented history of electing members of Congress who don't live in the district they represent. Jason Chaffetz, Burgess Owens, and Moore himself all fit that description when first elected. Delegates apparently had no problem with the arrangement then.

Four of the Democrats running in the 1st District—Ben McAdams, Nate Blouin, Michael Farrell, and Liban Mohammed—have already qualified for the primary through signatures, which makes Saturday's convention vote more of a straw poll.

Despite that, there should still be some fireworks on Saturday.

This week, multiple women accused Salt Lake County Councilmember Eva Lopez Chavez of harassment and inappropriate behavior. Lopez has denied the allegations. As of Friday morning, she had not yet qualified through signatures, so she may be sweating Saturday's vote to keep her campaign alive beyond the convention.

The week prior, old online posts from Blouin surfaced in which he mocked members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and made jokes about sexual assault, knocking his campaign off kilter.

With Lopez, Blouin, Farrell, and Mohammed all competing for the progressive wing of the party and McAdams representing its establishment lane, the question on Saturday is how much the progressive vote is divided or whether the controversies push delegates to consolidate behind the former congressman.

Republicans are anxious to reclaim this seat, which flipped to the Forward Party after former Sen. Daniel Thatcher changed his party affiliation on the final day of the 2025 session. He later resigned from the seat and was replaced by Sen. Emily Buss.

Former House Majority Whip John Knotwell, who resigned his House seat in 2019, is trying to return to the legislature by winning the SD11 Republican nomination over Brooks Benson and Chris Sloan. As of Friday morning, Sloan had not yet collected enough signatures to qualify for the primary.

The eventual GOP nominee will be favored to put SD11 back in the Republican column in November. Utah Political Watch rates SD11 as "Likely Republican," though the district's Utah Competitive Index score suggests it runs barely above the state's 64.5% GOP baseline, meaning this race could be more competitive than Republicans would like.

Since his first legislative run in 2012, Sen. Dan McCay has never been forced into a primary. This year he faces two challengers: state Rep. Doug Fiefia, who is abandoning his seat in HD48 after a single term, and Tracie Halvorsen. None of them collected signatures, so they all need at least 40% of the delegate vote to advance to June or 60% to win the nomination outright.

McCay and Fiefia both have substantive war chests for a state Senate race: McCay reported just over $101,000 cash on hand, Fiefia about $108,000.

Halvorsen could be the wild card on Saturday. She is closely tied to Phil Lyman, which could give her a boost among delegates.

In February, she was among seven Republicans banned from most GOP events through 2030 after they falsely accused Salt Lake County Republican officers of criminal election interference. The dispute centered on a plan to endorse candidates in non-partisan races during the 2025 election, including a bid by McCay's wife, Tawnee, for Riverton mayor. Last year, Halvorsen led a sweeping federal lawsuit accusing Gov. Spencer Cox, Lt. Governor Deidre Henderson, Republican lawmakers including McCay, and state party officials of running a vast election fraud and racketeering scheme to keep signature-gathering candidates on the 2024 ballot. The suit was thrown out of court.

The only reason Halvorsen is allowed in the room Saturday is because she filed to run.

Utah Political Watch rates SD18 as "Likely Republican" in November.