News that Sen. John Curtis is weighing a 2028 run for governor landed like a grenade in Utah politics this week.
Politico reported that Curtis’s allies are working to assess how much support there would be for a possible run and asking potential donors to refrain from donating to other candidates until he makes up his mind.
The conditions for a Curtis gubernatorial campaign in 2028 are extremely favorable. Here are three reasons he probably pulls the trigger.
It’s essentially a free roll
Curtis doesn't face Senate re-election until 2030. That means a 2028 gubernatorial run costs him nothing; if he loses, he just returns to Washington. If he wins, he trades the Beltway for the governor’s mansion.
Senators run for governor all the time because it’s a low-risk move when the calendar lines up.
Sen. Frank Murkowski left for Alaska’s governorship in 2002. Sen. John Corzine did the same in New Jersey in 2005. Sen. Pete Wilson jumped to California’s governor’s office in 1990. Sen. David Vitter tried and failed in Louisiana in 2015, then finished out his term.
His wallet won’t be the problem
During Curtis's 2024 Senate campaign, the Conservative Values for Utah super PAC dumped more than $5.3 million into the GOP primary to boost his candidacy. Nearly all of that money came from North Carolina billionaire Jay Faison, a prominent Republican donor who pushes a conservative, market-based approach to climate and clean energy.
Curtis and Faison have a long relationship. Curtis founded the Conservative Climate Caucus in 2021 while still in the House, with Faison's organization, Clear Path Action, providing much of the research and organizational muscle. In the 2024 race, Faison's network spent heavily on advertising to counter attacks branding Curtis as "too liberal" on environmental issues, giving Curtis political cover with Republican primary voters skeptical that he was too liberal on environmental issues.
Translation: Curtis already has a billionaire donor with a thick checkbook who aligns with him on climate policy.
Utah’s almost comically lax campaign finance laws would not be a hurdle for Faison to support Curtis in 2028. Unlike federal elections, Utah imposes no limits on how much individuals or organizations can donate to a candidate, or spend independently on their behalf. Curtis can also transfer money directly from his federal campaign account or his "Sock It To 'Em" leadership PAC to a state campaign, again without limits.
The last time Utah had an open seat for governor, four Republican primary candidates combined to spend more than $6 million, with PACs and independent expenditures adding another $2 million on top. With Faison's support and no legal ceiling on spending, Curtis could easily dwarf that number.
He’s already a frontrunner in a crowded field
The likely 2028 field is shaping up to be a crowded one. Former congressman and current Fox News personality Jason Chaffetz, House Speaker Mike Schultz, Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson, Rep. Blake Moore, Traeger Grills CEO Jeremy Andrus and entrepreneur Brad Bonham are all reportedly eyeing the race.
Curtis arguably enters with a higher profile than most, if not all, of the other potential candidates. A poll from late last year showed him with a net approval rating of plus-26, with 51% of Utah voters approving of his job performance against 25% disapproval. Those are better numbers than Gov. Spencer Cox (plus-20) and Sen. Mike Lee (plus-13) from the same survey. In a crowded primary where most voters are making decisions based on name recognition, that kind of head start is enormous.
Right now, Chaffetz is the most credible challenger. He flirted with a gubernatorial run in 2020 and 2024. This time he appears to mean it. He transferred the entire balance of his federal American Victory political action committee to a state-level Utah Victory PAC last year and has built a war chest of more than $400,000. His Fox News perch and podcast have kept him relevant and part of the political conversation.
There’s a history of Fox News personalities running for political office with mixed results. The best example is John Kasich, who left Congress, hosted a program on Fox News from 2001 to 2007, then returned to Ohio to win the governorship in 2010.
Chaffetz is well positioned to try the same politics-to-Fox-to-politics pathway.
Schultz, meanwhile, faces a more brutal reality.
If Schultz wants to be a serious candidate in 2028, he has a much tougher road ahead of him. Despite holding one of the most powerful positions in Utah politics, most voters have no idea who he is. Despite holding one of the most powerful positions in state politics as House speaker, most Utah voters don't know who he is. A Noble Predictive Insights poll from last year found him at a net approval of just plus-6, with 32% viewing his performance favorably. But nearly half of respondents said they either had no idea who he was (14%) or didn't know enough to judge (28%).
Schultz has been trying to fix that. The Utah House has been paying Northbound Strategies $6,000 per month in taxpayer funds to produce videos of him explaining his policy priorities. The results have been, to put it charitably, underwhelming. Northbound's YouTube page currently hosts 24 videos featuring Schultz that have collectively racked up fewer than 400 total views.
If you have a news tip that we should investigate, email us at tips@utahpolitics.news or send your tip through our secure online form.
