Why Prop. 4 repeal organizers almost certainly aren't holding back signatures—and why that strategy would guarantee failure
Good news/bad news for the Prop. 4 repeal campaign: verified signatures are ticking up, but the clock is getting meaner.
Utahns for Representative Government, which is made up of top Utah GOP leaders, has been collecting signatures since November to put a repeal of Prop. 4, Utah’s anti-gerrymandering law approved by voters in 2018, on November’s ballot. They need to collect 140,748 signatures statewide by Feb. 15. On top of that, they also must get signatures from 8% of active voters in 26 of Utah’s 29 state Senate districts.
The good news: the campaign added 2,269 signatures. Over the last two days, they’re averaging 2,388—near their peak pace.
The bad news: with just 10 days left to collect, they’re at 51.6% of the statewide requirement. The daily requirement has jumped to 6,800+—nearly triple their recent pace.
It’s not just statewide totals. They need to hit district thresholds in 26 of 29 Senate districts. So far they’ve cleared only two. Even if they squeak by statewide, they’d qualify in just 10 districts—16 short of the ballot.
There’s a theory that organizers are sitting on thousands of signatures to dump at the deadline. That doesn’t pencil out when they’re this far off pace.
- Assuming 25–30% of signatures get tossed as invalid, they still need to submit 91,000–97,000 more to hit the statewide goal.
- Submitting sooner gives them a feedback loop: spot high rejection rates and plug holes where they’re falling behind.
- Nineteen districts are on track to fail. Verification drives targeting; hoarding signatures cuts off that intel.
- Clerks get three weeks post-deadline to verify. Dumping at the end just backloads risk—on the campaign.
If organizers do have a secret stash, now’s the time to crack it open—or risk watching Prop 4 live to fight another cycle.
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