Utah GOP Pushes Prop. 4 Repeal; Signatures Skew Red

Utah Republicans aren’t just leading the charge to put a repeal of the state’s anti‑gerrymandering law on the November ballot—they're also supplying most of the signatures to get it there. Prop. 4, the voter‑approved anti‑gerrymandering measure that created an independent redistricting commission, is squarely in the crosshairs.

Utahns for Representative Government, the group behind the Prop. 4 repeal effort, is led by Utah Republican Party Chairman Rob Axson and several other party officials and elected Republicans. Using signature data from the Utah Lt. Governor’s office and voter data provided by L2, Utah Political Watch matched approximately 85% of petition signers to the statewide voter file. Roughly 15,000 signers could not be matched because their information is not available publicly.

By the numbers:

Nearly 70% of voters who signed the petition are registered Republicans.
Just under 20% do not belong to any political party.
Approximately 7% are registered Democrats.

No one’s shocked that a GOP‑run campaign draws GOP signers. However, Republican voters are still overrepresented on the petitions compared to the overall partisan breakdown of the state. Republicans make up 51% of all Utah voters, but are responsible for just under 70% of petition signatures. Democrats account for 13.5% of Utah voters, but only 7% of signatures. Independents make up 28.5% of all voters, but only 20% of signatures.

In nearly every one of Utah’s 29 state Senate districts, Republicans account for the most signatures that have been logged so far. The only exception is Senate District 9, where 32% of signatures come from independent voters and 30% are from Democrats. Just 28% are from registered Republicans. District 9 is represented by Democrat Jen Plumb in the state Senate.

Where signatures are coming from

More than half of the signatures that have been verified through Wednesday have come from just three counties - Salt Lake and Utah counties each account for just under 25% of the total number of signatures. Approximately 12% are from Washington County. Nine counties (Beaver, Duchesne, Emery, Garfield, Grand, Rich, Piute, Wayne and Daggett) account for just over 1% of all verified signatures.

Campaign update

The latest signature totals released Wednesday morning show the campaign is still gaining ground, adding 5,827 net signatures. So far, just over 100,000 signatures have been verified, and the campaign is at 71% of the statewide requirement of 140,748. Another 40,741 signatures gets them over the top.

The effort also needs verified signatures from 8% of registered voters in 26 of the state’s 29 Senate districts. So far, they’ve reached the required total in four districts. Those districts have tallied 5,516 total surplus signatures above the requirement.

Two districts, Senate Districts 1 and 25 are more than 90% of the way toward the goal. Senate District 11 is at 83%, and five more are above 70%.