⏰ Tick Tock
52 - Days until candidate filing is open for the 2026 midterm elections (1/2/2026)
70 - Days to the start of the 2026 Utah Legislature (1/20/2026).
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📰Above the fold
After 969 days, Utah’s congressional map fight has a ruling. Near midnight Monday, Third District Judge Dianna Gibson rejected the legislature’s map as an “extreme partisan outlier” under Proposition 4 and adopted an alternative proposed by the plaintiffs, which creates an electoral “donut hole” with one strongly Democratic district centered on Salt Lake County surrounded by three GOP-heavy districts.
Prop. 4 is the voter-approved anti-gerrymandering reform that bars partisan favoritism and limits the use of political data in line-drawing. Gibson found the legislature’s map violated those standards.
The ruling scrambles the 2026 midterm landscape for both parties. The legislature’s map produced four GOP-leaning seats; by slicing Salt Lake County, two districts looked competitive for Democrats.
Gibson wrote that the legislature’s plan (Map C) exhibits “a level of pro-Republican favoritism” amounting to a gerrymander.
- Simulations by the plaintiffs’ expert produced four GOP-leaning districts just 0.06% of the time—evidence of extreme partisan tilt.
- The map was drawn using partisan political data, which violates Prop. 4’s ban on using that data.
- It split three cities into 11 pieces and carved three counties four times, contrary to Prop. 4’s guidance to keep communities intact.
- The least-Republican district still had an expected GOP vote share of 56%, a statistical outlier across simulations.
Map C split northern Salt Lake County, peeling heavily Democratic Salt Lake City away from the urban core. Gibson said the intent was to “crack” Democratic voters and dilute their ballot strength.
In adopting the plaintiffs’ map, Gibson said it “does not exhibit partisan favoritism,” even though the Salt Lake County–centered district would have gone for Democrat Kamala Harris by more than 23 points in 2024—which suggests a safe Democratic seat.
Gibson also struck down SB1011, the bill lawmakers rushed through before passing their map. SB1011 attempted to codify standards for evaluating whether a proposed congressional map had a partisan bias. Gibson didn’t buy that argument.
“The Court concludes that SB1011 impairs, and in fact nullifies, the core reform of Proposition 4 to prohibit partisan favoritism that leads to partisan gerrymandering,” Gibson wrote.
The legislature will undoubtedly appeal Gibson’s decision, hoping to keep the congressional map they approved in 2021 in place. But for now, the new map creates a conundrum for both Republicans and Democrats.
With one fewer safe GOP district, one member of Utah’s all-Republican House delegation faces a tougher general election. (Members are not required to live in the district they represent.)
As we previously reported, under the court map, Rep. Blake Moore’s home falls in the Democratic-leaning 1st District, but he’s expected to seek re-election in the 2nd, which covers Northern Utah.
The likely “odd man out” is either freshman Rep. Mike Kennedy or Rep. Burgess Owens.
- Kennedy’s home lands in the sprawling 3rd District around eastern and southern Utah—the same district as Rep. Celeste Maloy (Washington County/St. George). It’s unlikely that Republicans will push Southern Utah’s lone member in Congress into another seat.
- Owens’ home sits in the solidly Republican 4th. Does he yield a safe seat to Kennedy, or stay put and force a reshuffle?
The new map gives Democrats their best shot at a Utah House seat in years. In the three GOP-leaning districts, registered Republicans constitute a majority; registered Democrats are roughly 10%.
The Salt Lake County–centered district has the highest concentration of Democratic voters, though not a majority: Republicans and independents are each about a third; Democrats just over 25%.
If the map remains in place, expect a stampede of Democratic candidates.
Former Congressman Ben McAdams is expected to launch his bid to later this week, joining more than a half-dozen Democrats who have filed with the FEC or announced campaigns—with more likely.
The Democratic field in District 1 could rival the 11 Republicans who jumped into the 2018 U.S. Senate race after Orrin Hatch retired. Ironically, Mike Kennedy won the convention delegate vote over Mitt Romney—but Romney won the primary in a landslide.
