Utah Prop 4 Repeal Nears Ballot as Signature Removals Rise

The campaign to put a repeal of Prop. 4, Utah’s anti-gerrymandering law approved by voters in 2018, on November’s ballot is closing in on the statewide threshold while fighting a second front: an organized effort to strip names off the petitions that is having an impact on whether the initiative reaches November’s ballot.

The repeal campaign is on pace to hit the statewide requirement of 140,748 signatures this week. It has now cleared the 8% signature threshold in nine state Senate districts and needs 17 more to get to the required 26.

On Tuesday, organizers added 6,497 verified signatures, putting the statewide total at just over 92%—10,802 short.

To qualify, the campaign also needs signatures equal to 8% of registered voters in 26 of 29 Senate districts. Nine more districts are within 600 signatures and could cross the line by week’s end.

SD24 needs 59 more signatures to qualify
SD10 needs 90 more signatures
SD23 needs 258 more
SD12 is 378 signatures short
SD16 is 439 signatures away
SD18 is 553 signatures short
SD3 needs 566 more
SD22 is 573 signatures away
SD21 needs 583 signatures

At the current pace, the campaign is on track to hit the 8% threshold in 26 districts, with three Salt Lake County seats likely falling short:

SD9, held by Democrat Jen Plumb, is only at 51.1% of the required signatures, and will likely fall approximately 1,000 signatures short.
SD14, held by Democrat Stephanie Pitcher, is on pace to miss the requirement by approximately 1,500 signatures.
SD13, held by Democrat Nate Blouin, is on pace to just miss the requirement by approximately 300 signatures.

That math leaves almost no cushion. If the verification pace slips even a little, districts that are on pace to barely qualify could slide into the danger zone.

The other variable: a coordinated signature-removal campaign urging past signers to yank their names. An analysis by Utah Political Watch counts roughly 3,500 removals so far, including 442 on Monday.

SD10 is where the removal campaign is having a significant impact, with 175 signatures gone. The district needs 2,975 total and should have crossed last week, but removals have pushed it back to 97% of the target.

Other districts hit hard by removals are the same places already struggling to reach the threshold.

Under Utah law, signers have either 30 days from when they first signed the petition or 45 days from when the lieutenant governor posts their name online to make a request to move their signature, whichever comes first. Signatures verified in late February and early March might not hit the removal deadline until late March and early April. The final determination for whether the repeal initiative will qualify for the ballot isn’t until April 29.