> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://utahpolitics.news/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # It's election day in Utah. Here are 6 things to watch for - URL: https://utahpolitics.news/utah-legislature-election-2026-races-to-watch/ - Published: 2026-11-03T12:33:18.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-03T12:33:50.000Z - Author: Bryan Schott - Tags: Elections Republicans will control both chambers of the Utah Legislature when the votes are counted Tuesday night. The question is by how much. Democrats lead the national generic congressional ballot by about 9 points, and they have outperformed in special elections across the country all cycle. Utah’s legislative maps were drawn to withstand that kind of pressure. Tuesday will test whether they do. Here’s what to watch for. ### 1\. The House supermajority Republicans need 50 of the House’s 75 seats to keep their two-thirds supermajority. Utah Political Watch’s final ratings favor them in 53 seats, with seven toss-ups. Democrats could win every toss-up, and Republicans would still clear the bar. To break the supermajority, Democrats would need all seven toss-ups plus four of the eight seats rated Lean Republican. ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/ff/05/ff054ad9-05eb-4301-bd7c-0d7e2e111eac/content/images/2026/11/Gemini_Generated_Image_qo5gucqo5gucqo5g.jpeg) Utah Political Watch will livestream results as they come in Tuesday night. Polls close at 8 p.m., and our coverage starts at 7:30 p.m. The night breaks into three levels of difficulty for Democrats: - A good Democratic year: HD10 and HD26\. Wins here are expected and don’t threaten the supermajority on their own. - A real wave: HD03, HD04, HD27, HD39, HD42 and HD59\. This is where the supermajority starts to wobble. - A historic wave: the Lean Republican seats HD43, HD07, HD48 and HD36\. If Democrats are competitive in these, the supermajority is in real danger. 2\. The Senate supermajority is almost certainly safe Only 15 of the Senate’s 29 seats are on the ballot, and Republicans hold 12 of the 14 that aren’t up until 2028\. That leaves them well positioned to reach the 20 seats they need for a supermajority. Democrats have one realistic pickup, SD5\. Two Republican-leaning seats, SD11 and SD19, could tighten. Republicans could lose all three and still hold a supermajority. It would take a fourth loss, in a Likely Republican seat such as SD7 or SD21, to break it. The Senate question is less whether Republicans keep their supermajority than whether Democrats add a seat at all. ### 3\. Money vs. the national mood Through the fall, campaign cash and the national environment often pulled in opposite directions. Tuesday will show which matters more. Republican incumbents in HD39 and SD19 finished with huge cash advantages: about 8 to 1 for Rep. Ken Ivory and more than 150 to 1 for Sen. Kirk Cullimore. Both districts have underlying numbers a national wave could overturn. HD26 and HD59 are the reverse. Democrats raised far more in the final stretch, and both are among the most competitive districts on the map. If the cash-rich Republicans win comfortably, local factors held. If they struggle anyway, the national environment overpowered everything else. ### 4\. Whether anti-Trump voters carry it down the ballot Kamala Harris carried two Republican-held House districts in 2024, HD42 and HD43\. In both, voters chose a Democrat for president and a Republican for the Legislature on the same ballot. HD42 is now a toss-up. HD43 is rated Lean Republican because Rep. Steve Eliason has a massive financial edge over an opponent who has raised almost nothing. If both seats hold, Utah’s suburban ticket-splitters are still splitting their tickets. If HD43 gets close, they may have stopped. ### 5\. Candidates outside the two parties Three of the most interesting races on the map have no Democrat on the ballot: - HD03: Unaffiliated Patrick Belmont is on his third run after losing by about 1,200 votes in 2024. - HD38: Unaffiliated Sergio Sotelo, backed by organized labor, finished the campaign with more cash than his Republican opponent. - SD11: Forward Party incumbent Emily Buss is defending her seat against Republican Brooks Benson. More than $200,000 in outside spending has gone against her. A Democratic-leaning national mood doesn’t automatically lift unaffiliated or third-party candidates. Tuesday will answer whether it does here. ### 6\. Whether the Republican offense paid off Republicans targeted a few Democratic incumbents this year. Earlier campaign finance reports showed Republican challengers ahead financially in HD37 and HD35, but both Democrats retook the money lead by October. A Republican flip in either seat would offset Democratic gains elsewhere. If neither race is close, Republicans spent the fall on offense with little to show for it.