Utah Political Watch called Utah’s 2026 election results. Every rating change we made this fall moved toward Democrats, and the results followed. Across both chambers, the party we rated as favored won or leads in 73 of the 82 contested races where we picked a favorite, an 89% hit rate.
Every seat we rated Safe Republican stayed Republican. Every seat we rated as favoring Democrats went to Democrats, without exception. Of the eight Republican-held seats we flagged this fall as most likely to fall in a wave, Democrats won seven and lead in the eighth, including the seat held by the Senate majority leader.
Our one miss? We were too cautious. We saw the "Blue Wave" coming; what hit Utah was a "Blue Tsunami." Our final ratings said Republicans would hang on to their House supermajority. They won’t. Even our misses pointed the right way: all nine were Republicans losing seats we had rated Lean or Likely Republican.
And our own worst-case scenario called it outright. It said 13 Republican House seats would flip and the supermajority would fall. All 13 flipped, and the supermajority fell.
The results
Republicans have won or lead in 45 of the 75 seats in the Utah House. Democrats have won or lead in 28, and unaffiliated candidates won two.
Republicans needed 50 seats for a two-thirds supermajority. As of Tuesday afternoon, the AP has called 43 House races for Republicans. If they won all four of the remaining uncalled races, including two where Democrats currently lead, they would finish with 47. It will be the first time in more than three decades that Republicans don’t hold a supermajority in the House.
Sixteen Republican-held House seats have flipped or could still flip. In the Senate, Democrats picked up two seats. Republicans lead narrowly in a third, SD11, held by a Forward Party senator, though the race hasn’t been called.
What we got right
The direction. Since August, we made more than 20 rating changes, and every one moved toward Democrats. They were based on campaign finance reports, candidate filings and a national environment that kept improving for Democrats.
The safe seats. Republicans won or lead in all 35 House seats we rated Safe Republican, and won all six Safe Republican Senate seats. Democrats won every seat we rated as favoring them in both chambers, whether Safe, Likely or Lean. That includes HD37 and HD35, which Republicans targeted with significant money early in the fall. We kept both at Lean Democratic despite Republican fundraising advantages, and Democrats won both by more than 30 points.
The seats to watch. This fall, we published a list of the Republican-held seats most likely to fall in a Democratic wave: HD20, HD26, HD27, HD39, HD42 and HD43 in the House, and SD5 and SD19 in the Senate. Democrats won seven of the eight. They lead in the eighth, HD20, which hasn’t been called. The winners include Senate Majority Leader Kirk Cullimore’s SD19.
The Harris seats. HD42 and HD43 were the only Republican-held House seats Kamala Harris carried in 2024. Both flipped.
Races without Democrats. We moved HD03 to Toss-up and HD38 out of the Safe Republican column even though neither race had a Democrat on the ballot, because the unaffiliated candidates had real support. Both won.
The worst-case scenario. This fall, we asked what would happen if Utah matched the 17.1-point Democratic overperformance seen in special elections nationwide this cycle. We called it “a stress test rather than a prediction.” It identified 13 House seats that would flip. Democrats or an unaffiliated candidate won or lead in all 13.
Where we fell short
The biggest problem was the Lean Republican tier in the House. We rated eight seats Lean Republican. Republicans won or lead in only two, HD07 and HD48. Democrats won five, and an unaffiliated candidate won the other.
Two House seats we rated Likely Republican also flipped. The AP called HD44 for Democrat Jess Birtcher. In HD20, Democrat Phil Graves leads in a race that hasn’t been called. In the Senate, SD19 flipped despite our Lean Republican rating.
The toss-ups broke the same way. Republicans didn’t win or lead in any of the seven House toss-ups. Democrats won or lead in six, and an unaffiliated candidate won the seventh.
| Rating | House result | Senate result |
|---|---|---|
| Safe R | Republicans won or lead in 35 of 35 | Republicans won 6 of 6 |
| Likely R | Republicans won 8 of 10 | Republicans won 2 of 2 |
| Lean R | Republicans won or lead in 2 of 8 | Republicans lead in 1 of 2 |
| Toss-up | Democrats 6, unaffiliated 1, Republicans 0 | Democrats won the only toss-up |
| Lean D | Democrats won 2 of 2 | None |
| Likely D | Democrats won 4 of 4 | None |
| Safe D | Democrats won 9 of 9 | Democrats won 4 of 4 |
Includes current leaders in the five races the AP has not yet called.
Why we missed
Our ratings were built on how Republicans and Democrats have typically performed in each district across eight elections. In districts with both a Republican and a Democrat on the ballot, Republicans this year ran a median of about 16 points below that typical performance. The shift was consistent, averaging 15 to 17 points in every rating category, from the safest Republican seats to the safest Democratic ones.
That is close to the 17-point scenario we tested this fall, which is why the stress test held up better than our final ratings. Three seats flipped beyond the 13 it identified: HD36, where a Democrat entered late; HD38, where an unaffiliated candidate won; and HD62. The stress test projected Republicans falling to 48 seats. They are on track for 45.
Our final ratings sat nearer the middle of our range because we assumed Utah would feel the national wave less than other states. Utah’s legislative maps are drawn in ways that make Republican majorities hard to dislodge, and in most years they hold. This year, the wave overwhelmed them.
Money didn’t save Republican incumbents
Several of our ratings leaned Republican because the incumbent had a large financial advantage. That turned out to matter very little:
- Kirk Cullimore had more than 150 times as much cash as Democrat Shana Anderson in SD19. He lost by nearly 8 points.
- Jim Dunnigan had $163,000 on hand in HD36, against Blake Townsend’s $8,000. Townsend didn’t become the Democratic nominee until late in the race. Dunnigan lost by nearly 7 points.
- Steve Eliason lost HD43 by more than 8 points to a challenger who raised less than $2,000.
- Ken Ivory led his challenger about 8 to 1 in cash and lost by 16 points.
We treated those cash gaps as a bulwark against a potential Democratic wave. In this election, they weren’t.
Utah’s first unaffiliated legislators
Unaffiliated candidates won two House seats. Patrick Belmont won HD03 by 18 points, and Sergio Sotelo won HD38 by 11. Utah had never before elected an unaffiliated candidate to the Legislature. Belmont, who lost by about 1,200 votes in his last run for the seat two years ago, broke through on his third try.
The five races still uncalled
| Race | Rating | Current leader | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| HD20 | Likely R | Phil Graves (D) | 1.5 points |
| SD11 | Lean R | Brooks Benson (R) | 1.6 points |
| HD59 | Toss-up | Celeste Johnson (D) | 1.8 points |
| HD48 | Lean R | Jake Hunsaker (R) | 2.1 points |
| HD61 | Safe R | Lisa Shepherd (R) | 3.0 points |
Two of those races are worth watching beyond the outcome itself. HD61 was a seat we rated Safe Republican, and Republican Lisa Shepherd currently has less than 50% of the vote. In SD11, a Benson win would be the only Republican pickup of this election cycle, taking the seat from a Forward Party senator.
Whatever happens in these races, the House supermajority is gone.
What comes next
We’ll update this analysis after the results are certified and look more closely at what 2026 means for how we rate races in 2028. In a wave this large, the national environment mattered more than district history, incumbency or money. Our ratings need to give it more weight.
