Tick Tock: Utah Prop. 4 repeal campaign running out of math - and time
With less than three weeks remaining, the Prop. 4 repeal campaign is facing a mathematical double bind: it must exceed its best historical performance by about 2.1% to reach the required statewide 140,748 signatures. And even at that clip, they still wouldn’t meet Utah’s geographic rule: signatures from 8% of voters in 26 of the state’s 29 Senate districts.
Just 1,659 new signatures posted Tuesday morning, well short of the pace needed to reach the statewide minimum requirement. Organizers have been submitting signatures for more than seven weeks and still haven’t passed 50% of the overall requirement, now sitting at 41.99% of the goal.
Organizers have until Feb. 15 to collect and submit signatures, but clerks have an additional 21 days to complete the verification process, which could stretch until March 7.
The effort would need to net roughly 2,916 verified signatures every working day through March 7 to hit the statewide requirement. Their pace over the last five days is 26.1% below the target. Even if they can match their historical best five-day average, they would still fall 1,729 signatures short.
More urgently, the effort is on track to fall well short of the geographic requirements to qualify the repeal for November’s ballot. Utah law requires signatures from 8% of voters in 26 of the state’s 29 Senate districts. So far, they’ve only cleared the bar in one district, while just five more are at 50% or more.
Even if they sprint to the statewide total, they’re on track to reach the district threshold in only about 13 of 29—well shy of the 26 required—meaning no spot on the November ballot.
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