Three takeaways from Saturday's Republican conventions: Trevor Lee's convention loss exposes a structural weakness in his campaign; Ken Ivory avoids a primary, but the district’s numbers hint at a tighter-than-usual November; and the ballot is thinning, with more unopposed races.
Trevor Lee's delegate trouble
Embattled Rep. Trevor Lee (R-Layton) lost his own party convention in HD16 on Saturday, falling to Bob Stevenson. That result is worse than it looks.
5 days - Utah State Republican and Democratic State Party nominating conventions (4/25/2026)
64 days - Utah's 2026 primary election (6/23/2026)
197 days - 2026 midterm elections (11/3/2026)
932 days - 2028 presidential election (11/7/2028)
Convention delegates are supposed to be Lee’s people—the most engaged, most ideological Republicans in the district. If he can’t lock down the activists, that’s a structural problem for his campaign.
Delegates are the reason Lee is even in the Legislature. In 2022, he stunned incumbent Steve Handy at the Davis County GOP convention, winning the nomination outright because Handy didn’t collect signatures.
Utah’s system gives convention delegates outsized power. Just 91 delegates voted in HD16 on Saturday; Stevenson won 51-40. There are about 10,500 registered Republicans in the district, so delegates represent roughly 0.86% of them.
Stevenson isn’t an insurgent. He’s a two-term county commissioner and former Layton mayor with deep roots and name ID. At the same time, Lee has been dogged by controversy and scandal during his two terms in office. Just last week, two former employers accused him of fraud. One of those allegations is under investigation by the Utah Attorney General’s office.
The primary electorate is far larger and less ideological than convention delegates, which is more bad news for Lee if he’s starting to slip with the base.
Recent history backs that up. In 2024, after cruising to an easy victory at the convention, he nearly lost the primary election to Daniela Harding, surviving by just 524 votes. That was before the current round of scandals.
The 2022 election carries its own warning. After Lee beat Handy at convention, Handy ran as a write-in and took 35.5% in November. The Libertarian candidate in the race grabbed 16%. There were more votes against Lee than for him that year.
Ken Ivory breathes a sigh of relief
Rep. Ken Ivory clinched the Republican nomination in HD39 at Saturday’s Salt Lake County convention, beating Lisa Dean and Ryan Jackson.
The loss has to sting for Dean. She forced Ivory into a 2024 primary via signatures and lost by just 590 votes.
She tried the signature path again this year and agonizingly fell three signatures short of qualifying for the primary.
Only 45 delegates voted in HD39; Ivory took 35. Those delegates equal about 0.55% of registered Republicans in the district.
Ivory faces Democrat Drew Howell in November. Utah Political Watch rates the contest as “Lean Republican,” but the Utah Competitiveness Index suggests it could be closer. A typical Republican gets about 56% in HD39—well below Utah’s 64% to 65% statewide average—because the district votes about 8 to 9 points more Democratic than most Utah legislative seats.
More unopposed Republicans on the November ballot
Two more Republican House candidates will be unopposed in November, bringing the total to five.
Incumbent Rep. Jim Dunnigan won the nomination outright at Saturday’s Salt Lake County convention after already qualifying for the primary by signatures. There’s no Democrat in HD36 after the initial Democratic candidate withdrew, and no replacement stepped up, so Dunnigan is unopposed.
Jackie Larson won the nomination in HD64 to replace Rep. Jefferson Burton, who withdrew after moving out of the district. There’s no Democrat in the race.
They join Republican incumbents Ray Ward, Nelson Abbott and Doug Welton, who are also unopposed in November.
Three Democrats will be unopposed after the June primary:
- HD14: Incumbent Stephanie Pitcher vs. Tyler Khater. No other candidates filed.
- HD21: Stephen Otterstrom vs. Aaron Wiley to replace incumbent Sandra Hollins. The winner is unopposed in November.
- HD34: Julie Jackson vs. Erin Jemison to succeed retiring Rep. Carol Spackman Moss. No other candidates filed.
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