Repeal Prop. 4? Utah signature drive stalled at 34%

Utah’s Prop 4 repeal campaign barely budged in the latest count. As of Tuesday morning, clerks verified just 1,618 more signatures, nudging the effort to just over 34% of the 140,748 required statewide to land on November’s ballot.

Prop. 4, passed in 2018, created an independent redistricting commission and banned partisan gerrymandering. Organizers for the push to repeal the measure are struggling to catch up.

They have until Feb. 14 to submit signatures, and final totals may not be available until March 7 (clerks have 21 days to verify). That timeline averages to an average of 2,801 verified signatures per working day, excluding weekends and holidays, if they want to meet the statewide minimum.

The good news? They’ve topped 2,801 on six separate days and hit 2,500 or more on 10 days. Their best five-day average was between Dec. 15-19 with 2,858 verified signatures per day.

The bad news? They’ve struggled to maintain that pace.

The trend is slipping. The most recent five-day average is 2,063—26% below target, or 738 short per day. At that pace, they’ll miss the statewide requirement by more than 24,000 signatures.

Even their best 10-day average—2,124 per day—is roughly 24% below the 2,801 they need.

And even if they hit the statewide number, there’s the tougher hurdle: signatures from 8% of voters in 26 of Utah’s 29 Senate districts. After more than a month, they haven’t cleared that bar in a single district.

At the current 2,063-a-day clip, they’d cross the 8% threshold in just six districts—20 short.

Even at the needed 2,801 per day, projections suggest they’d hit the mark in only 13 districts—half of what’s required.

Ten districts (SD2, SD10, SD11, SD23, SD24, SD25, SD26, SD27, SD28, SD29) sit at 36–89% of the requirement; at 2,801 per day, these likely reach the goal.
Ten districts (SD1, SD4, SD5, SD12, SD13, SD15, SD16, SD20, SD21 and SD22) are at 21-36% and need extra focus—roughly 100 to 120 new signatures per day.
Six districts (SD3, SD8, SD9, SD17, SD18 and SD19) sit at 17-20% and need heavy targeting—about 120-150 signatures per district per day.
Three districts (SD6, SD7 and SD14) are currently below 16% and need a major push to qualify—roughly 120-140 per district per day.