Prop. 4 repeal campaign surges—and Sunday's signature dump hasn't even hit yet
We won’t know the impact of the last‑minute signature dump for a few days, but the ballot push to put a repeal of Utah’s anti‑gerrymandering law on November’s ballot is clearly accelerating.
New figures released Tuesday from the Utah Lt. Governor’s office show Utahns for Representative Government added a net 5,232 verified signatures, bringing the statewide total to 94,180—about 67% of the 140,748 required. They still need 46,568.
On Sunday, organizers claimed a total of “many tens of thousands” above 200,000 after turning in a flurry of petitions at the last minute. If that’s accurate, it would almost guarantee the campaign will reach the statewide goal. Using a ~75% acceptance rate as a benchmark, clerks have processed roughly 125,000 so far, leaving an estimated 75,000 to 125,000 signatures in the backlog.
The campaign must also hit 8% of voters in 26 state Senate districts. Four districts (26, 27, 28, 29) are already qualified; they need 22 of the remaining 25—meaning they can miss in up to three.
Sunday’s signature dump boosts the odds of clearing the 8% threshold in enough districts—if those petitions are concentrated where they’re still short.
If “many tens of thousands above 200,000” means 240,000 or more, the campaign likely qualifies for the ballot. If it’s 230,000 or less, the math gets dicey.
Assuming ~95% of remaining petitions are concentrated in the 25 still‑failing districts and a ~75% acceptance rate, a final tally of 240,000+ likely gets them to 28 qualifying districts; 230,000 or less likely falls short.
Opponents of the repeal measure are currently contacting voters who may have been misled about the initiative to remove their signatures from petitions—a tactic that could chip away at the district thresholds. From Jan. 23 to Feb. 17, Utah Political Watch identified 1,633 voters who signed the petition who later had their signatures removed, including 140 in Tuesday’s update.
Comments