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📰 Above the fold
How Democratic is Utah’s newly created 1st Congressional District, which covers most of Salt Lake County?
It’s accurate to call the district Democratic‑leaning, but it’s not the deep‑blue stronghold some assume.
For sure, any Republican candidate will be at a distinct disadvantage under the new lines.
The last Republican who would have carried the district, when past results are plotted on the new boundaries, was Sean Reyes—by about 2.4 points—in the 2016 Attorney General race over Democrat Jon Harper.
In the 2016 U.S. Senate race, Democratic nominee Misty Snow would have edged Republican Mike Lee in the district by less than one point.
In the 2012 presidential race, Republican Mitt Romney would have carried the district over Barack Obama by about 7.6 points.
Since 2016, Democrats would have carried the new district in most major contests by roughly 9 to 25 points.
In every major election since 2016, Democrats would have carried the new district by anywhere between 9 and 25%. Independent Evan McMullin would have had the largest margin of victory for any candidate - carrying the new district by nearly 32 points over Republican Mike Lee in the 2022 U.S. Senate contest.
Utah’s previous congressional map, which was struck down in court, was so gerrymandered in favor of Republicans that the GOP nominee could typically cruise in November.
That dynamic does not exist for Democrats on the new map. The 1st District gives them a solid edge, but they can’t win by speaking only to Democrats.
Voter registration data from L2 shows that Republicans remain the largest bloc of registered voters at nearly 35%, independents at about 33%, and Democrats at roughly 25%.
For a Democrat to win the district, they still need to attract independents and a slice of Republicans. The new boundaries make that job easier—but turnout, candidate quality, and message discipline will decide whether the advantage translates into a win.
The 2022 U.S. Senate results in Utah’s 1st Congressional District underscore the point: mapped to the new lines, independent Evan McMullin beat Mike Lee by nearly 32 points—the largest recent margin—by consolidating Democrats and independents, and even some Republican voters.