With Election Day on Nov. 3 and ballots already in voters’ hands, Utah Political Watch has released its final Utah Senate race ratings of the 2026 cycle.
In August, only one Senate race on our map was rated as competitive. Today there are three, and no rating has moved toward Republicans since the summer.
Democrats now lead the generic congressional ballot by about 9 points. Utah’s legislative maps are built to withstand swings like that, and Republicans are guaranteed to keep control of the Senate. But a wave that size has to show up somewhere, and our final ratings reflect where we think it could reach.
Which Utah Senate races could be competitive in 2026? Find out with our exclusive ratings.
The final campaign finance reports, which cover fundraising through Oct. 22, show two strategies. In several of the closest races, Democratic candidates spent most of their money in October, while their Republican opponents entered the last two weeks with large cash reserves. Utah mails ballots about three weeks before Election Day, so Democrats spent while voters were holding ballots. Republicans seem to be betting that late money can still move votes before the deadline.
Here’s what changed, and why we held the line on the rest.
Full supporting data for every Senate district—including 2024 and 2020 presidential results, voter registration breakdowns, historical legislative race results, and detailed methodology—is available exclusively to Utah Political Watch paid subscribers.
How far the map has moved
In our August ratings, SD5 was the only competitive Senate race, rated Lean Republican, and seven seats were Safe Republican. Today three races are competitive. Since August, five seats have moved toward Democrats. SD5 went from Lean Republican to Toss-up. SD11 and SD19 moved into competitive territory, SD21 left the Safe Republican column, and SD12 became Safe Democratic.
SD19 moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Republican incumbent Kirk Cullimore dominates fundraising in SD19. He raised $90,470 in the final reporting period and has $203,917 on hand. Democratic challenger Shana Anderson raised more than $18,000 earlier in the fall and is down to $1,290.
The district’s voting history tells a different story. SD19 is among the most competitive Republican-held Senate seats on the ballot. Republicans typically win about 66% of the vote there, and the district scores R+0.2 on our Utah Competitiveness Index, which means it votes about like the average Utah legislative district.
When we consider a national shift of 4 points or more toward Democrats, SD19 moves to Lean Republican. With Democrats up 9 nationally, we’re comfortable with that rating.
SD5 stays a Toss-up despite a late Republican cash edge
SD5 is the closest Senate race on the ballot. It’s an open, Republican-held seat, and it’s the only one with a Democratic-leaning score on our competitiveness index. It’s also among the most expensive Senate races on the map.
Republican Jill Koford has a clear financial edge heading into the final two weeks, raising $76,201 in the last period to Democrat CJ Hernandez’s $64,392. But Hernandez spent most of what she raised and has $13,125 left. Koford has $79,324, about six times as much.
We’re keeping SD5 a Toss-up for three reasons:
Total fundraising. Over the full general election, Hernandez has raised about $114,000 to Koford’s $98,000.
Timing. Hernandez spent heavily while ballots were already in voters’ hands, which is when money matters most in an all-mail election.
Party investment. Both parties’ committees have treated this race as a priority all fall. Koford received $20,000 from the Utah Republican Senate Campaign Committee, $15,000 from the Northern Utah Legislative PAC and $5,000 from the Weber County Republican Party. Hernandez received $27,500 and $15,000 from two Democratic PACs.
SD11 stays Lean Republican as outside money pours in
SD11 is a two-way race between Forward Party incumbent Emily Buss and Republican Brooks Benson after the Democratic nominee withdrew. Benson outraised Buss $48,425 to $33,143 in the final period. They finish nearly even on cash, with $27,558 for Buss and $24,562 for Benson.
The bigger number is outside spending. An outside group has spent $206,000 supporting Benson and opposing Buss, several times what either candidate has raised. That level of investment suggests Benson’s allies see a race they could lose. With no Democrat on the ballot, Democratic-leaning voters are likely to back Buss, which matters in a national environment this favorable to Democrats.
Benson still has the edge, but not a comfortable one.
SD21 stays Likely Republican
We moved SD21 out of the Safe Republican column in September, after Democrat Kandee Myers outraised incumbent Brady Brammer. Her fundraising has since faded. She raised $2,520 in the final period and has $3,366 left. Brammer raised nothing this period but has $16,147 on hand.
On those numbers, SD21 could reasonably move back to Safe Republican. We’re keeping it at Likely Republican because of the national environment, but we expect Brammer to win.
The rest of the map holds
The remaining Republican seats show no sign of a funded Democratic challenge. In SD18, Republican Doug Fiefia raised and spent about $80,000, while Democrat A. Dane Anderson has reported raising $0 all cycle. In SD7, Stephanie Hollist has $48,684 on hand to Democrat Garret Rushforth’s $3,831. On the Democratic side, Karen Kwan has $75,450 in SD12, while her Republican opponent raised $5,000 and spent almost all of it.
What it means for control
Republicans will keep control of the Utah Senate regardless of what happens Nov. 3. Fourteen of the chamber’s 29 seats aren’t on the ballot this year, and Republicans are favored in 10 of the 15 that are. The open question is how many of the three competitive seats Democrats can win.
We’ll publish results, and a look at how our ratings held up after the votes are counted.