⏰ Tick Tock
44 days - Candidate filing opens for the 2026 midterm elections (1/2/2026)
62 days - Start of the 2026 Utah Legislature (1/20/2026).
156 days - Utah Democratic Party's state nominating convention (4/25/2026)
215 days - Utah's 2026 primary election (6/23/2026)
349 days - 2026 midterm elections (11/3/2026)
1,084 days - 2028 presidential election (11/7/2028)
📰 Above the fold
Utah Republicans are furious that 3rd District Judge Dianna Gibson rejected the legislature’s proposed congressional map in favor of one submitted by plaintiffs in the gerrymandering lawsuit. That ruling could become a lifeline for the GOP in the 2026 midterms—it could be the difference between three safe seats and a surprise loss.
Several veteran Republican strategists have told me they think the Utah Legislature is “extremely lucky” that Gibson did not pick their map, because the current political environment is a flashing red warning light for the GOP heading into next year’s election.
The most recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll gave Democrats a 14-point advantage over Republicans (55-41%) on the generic congressional ballot. That’s the largest advantage Democrats have had since 2017 when the party lost 40 seats in Congress the following year during the first Trump administration.
That Democratic wave helped propel Ben McAdams’ to victory in 2018 over Republican Mia Love in Utah’s 4th District—then rated R+13 by the Cook Partisan Voter Index.
Nearly every other poll measuring the generic congressional vote is trending toward Democrats.
2002 was the last time that the party that held the White House did not lose seats in a midterm election.
If a similar dynamic unfolds in 2026, the map drawn by the GOP-controlled legislature could have been an absolute disaster for Republicans.
The map approved by Gibson creates three solid Republican seats and one seat, centered around Salt Lake County, that that favors Democrats. Inside Elections rates the new 1st District at D+14; the remaining seats range from R+38 to R+47.
The legislature’s “Option C” map created four seats with built-in GOP advantages. Two districts spanning the northern and southwestern parts of the state would be rock-solid Republican: Donald Trump would have carried each by 28 points or more in 2024.
The other two would be genuinely competitive:
District 2, combining western Salt Lake County with Tooele County, would have gone for Trump by just over 6 points in 2024 and 5 points in 2020.
District 3, covering the remainder of Salt Lake County and the southwest, would have been far tighter: Trump by 2.28 points in 2024 and 0.52 points in 2020.
Those two districts are exactly the kind of seats that flip in a wave election.
Political winds can shift before 2026. But if today’s environment holds, three safe GOP seats and one Democratic-leaning seat is likely a better trade for Republicans than two toss-up districts.