Republicans are still heavily favored to keep control of the Utah House, but Democratic candidates have spent the fall closing in, according to Utah Political Watch’s final House ratings before the Nov. 3 election.
The ratings draw on the final pre-election campaign finance reports, which cover fundraising through Oct. 22, and on the national political environment, where Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by about 9 points. Democratic candidates in race after race this fall raised money at a pace that matched or beat their Republican opponents, and the national mood is showing up in districts that looked safe a few months ago.
Eleven of the 75 House districts changed ratings in this final update. For the third update in a row, every change moved toward Democrats.
We rated all 75 Utah House districts. Here's which races actually matter in 2026.
Four Republican-held seats moved into toss-up territory. Four more moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and one moved from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Two Democratic seats that Republicans had targeted are now rated more secure for Democrats.
In August, the map had no toss-ups, and Republicans were favored in 61 seats. In September, they were favored in 57, with three toss-ups. Now they are favored in 53, with seven toss-ups. All 21 rating changes since August have moved toward Democrats.
Full supporting data for every Senate district—including 2024 and 2020 presidential results, voter registration breakdowns, historical legislative race results, and detailed methodology—is available exclusively to Utah Political Watch paid subscribers.
What it would take to break the supermajority
Republicans need 50 seats to keep the two-thirds supermajority that lets them override vetoes and put constitutional amendments on the ballot without a single Democratic vote. They are favored in 53.
Republicans have held a supermajority in the Utah House since the 1994 election, when they won 55 seats. Democrats came close to breaking it in 2000, when Republicans won 51 seats, and in 2008, when the GOP won 53.
Democrats could win all seven toss-ups, and Republicans would still hold the supermajority. To break it, Democrats would also need four of the eight Lean Republican seats: HD07, HD08, HD09, HD36, HD38, HD43, HD48 and HD62.
That is still unlikely. But if the national environment holds, the supermajority could come down to a handful of races in suburban Salt Lake and Davis counties.
Four seats move to toss-up
HD27: Lean Republican → Toss-up. Democrat Liz Oates and Republican incumbent Anthony Loubet raised nearly identical amounts in the final period, $30,072 to $29,130. Loubet has more cash on hand, $44,497 to $18,264. But Republicans typically win only 56% of the vote here, and with the national environment shifting 6 points or more toward Democrats, the seat becomes a toss-up.
HD42: Lean Republican → Toss-up. Kamala Harris carried this Republican-held district in 2024. Democrat Iva Williams outraised incumbent Clint Okerlund nearly 4 to 1 in the final period, $17,856 to $4,578. Okerlund has more cash, $24,548 to $9,338, but a district that already voted for the Democratic presidential nominee is a coin flip in this environment.
HD04: Lean Republican → Toss-up. Democrat Zane Woolstenhulme outraised incumbent Tiara Auxier nearly 3 to 1, $23,771 to $8,217. The two finish close on cash, with $11,904 for Auxier and $8,383 for Woolstenhulme. Woolstenhulme, the former mayor of Oakley, is a known quantity to voters in the district.
HD03: Lean Republican → Toss-up. No Democrat is on the ballot, but unaffiliated candidate Patrick Belmont is making his third run for the seat. He lost by 1,221 votes in 2024 and 1,440 in 2022. Belmont matched incumbent Jason Thompson’s fundraising in the final period, about $30,000 each. Thompson has a large cash lead, $72,198 to $21,505, but Utah Political Watch is hearing that his campaign is struggling in the final weeks.
Four seats move from Likely to Lean Republican
HD43. Harris carried this district by 5.6 points in 2024, one of only two Republican-held House seats she won. Incumbent Steve Eliason has a large financial advantage, $55,376 on hand to Democrat Ofa Matagi’s $1,155. But a district that already voted against Donald Trump no longer fits Likely Republican in an environment this favorable to Democrats.
HD38. No Democrat is running here either, but unaffiliated candidate Sergio Sotelo raised $36,450 in the final period to Republican Chris McConnehey’s $10,600. Sotelo now has slightly more cash on hand, $16,124 to $14,064.
HD07. Democrat Bianca Mittendorf outraised incumbent Ryan Wilcox and has more cash on hand, $6,655 to $4,879. Both campaigns are small, but the district votes almost exactly like the average Utah legislative district.
HD48. Neither candidate in this open seat has raised much, but Democrat Benyde Walker finished the period with slightly more cash than Republican Jake Hunsaker, $2,345 to $1,792. In a district this close to the state average, that is enough to make the race more competitive than Likely Republican.
One seat leaves the Safe Republican column
HD16: Safe Republican → Likely Republican. Republican Bob Stevenson, who unseated incumbent Trevor Lee in the June primary, is down to $462 on hand. Democrat Abigail Treasure has $6,831. Republicans typically win about 70% of the vote here, so Stevenson remains a strong favorite. But a nearly broke nominee in this environment no longer qualifies as safe.
Two Democratic seats move to Likely Democratic
In September, Republicans held a financial edge against both Democratic incumbents. Both advantages are gone.
HD35: Lean Democratic → Likely Democratic. Incumbent Rosalba Dominguez raised $34,018 in the final period to Republican Monique Ketcham’s $3,358. She now has $19,189 on hand to Ketcham’s $2,339.
HD30: Lean Democratic → Likely Democratic. Incumbent Jake Fitisemanu outraised Republican Dave Parke, $50,439 to $38,731, and leads in cash, $34,274 to $20,684.
Three toss-ups hold
HD26. The money now favors the Democrat. Michael Finch raised $63,155 in the final period to incumbent Matt MacPherson’s $6,452, and outspent him by roughly $71,600 to $49,600. MacPherson still has more cash on hand, $64,575 to $24,291, much of it from earlier Republican efforts to defend the seat.
HD59. In this open seat, Democrat Celeste Johnson raised $64,905 to Republican Luke Searle’s $20,867 and leads in cash by about 3 to 1. The money argues for moving it toward Democrats, but the district’s heavily Republican voter registration keeps it a toss-up.
HD39. The money here moved the other way. Incumbent Ken Ivory raised $18,502 to Democrat Drew Howells’ $8,280 and leads in cash by about 8 to 1. Republicans have spent heavily to protect Ivory, and Democrats have made the seat a priority. It stays a toss-up.
Two Lean Democratic seats hold
HD37. Republicans targeted Democratic incumbent Ashlee Matthews, and Republican Casey Saxton held a roughly 3-to-1 cash advantage in September. Matthews has since raised $56,094 to Saxton’s $31,815 and now leads in cash, $44,096 to $40,947. The seat stays at Lean Democratic.
HD10. Former Democratic incumbent Rosemary Lesser outraised Republican Jim Alvey but spent about $80,600 of it. Alvey now has more cash, $61,453 to $32,146. Lesser remains a narrow favorite.
Utah Political Watch will publish results and a look at how these ratings held up after the votes are counted.