Utah House map has no toss-up races for the first time

Utah Political Watch has updated its 2026 Utah House race ratings after reviewing the latest campaign finance disclosures. Five districts moved as a result, and for the first time since we launched these ratings, the House map has no true toss-up race left.

All 75 House districts on the 2026 ballot now lean toward one party or the other, even if only slightly.

Fundraising is usually the clearest early signal of which campaigns are actually viable. When we checked the latest filings against voter registration and three cycles of election results, several races sitting in competitive territory turned out to have financial gaps wide enough to settle the question.

Not every race lined up neatly, though. Two districts showed a real contradiction between the money and historical data, which is worth keeping an eye on. Those two races didn't change rating this cycle, but we're flagging them, and explaining exactly why, for anyone following the House map closely.

Here's what changed and why.

Three districts moved to Safe Republican or Safe Democratic because one party's candidate has no financed campaign behind them.

HD22 moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic. Incumbent Jennifer Dailey-Provost has raised $36,473. Republican Char Varga has raised $384 — a 95-to-1 gap.

HD25 moves the same way for the same reason. House Minority Leader Angela Romero has raised more than $17,000; Richard Nowak's combined fundraising is effectively $0.

HD33 is the most lopsided of the three. Incumbent Doug Owens has raised $58,963 against Republican Anna Reeves' $144 — a 410-to-1 gap that leaves no realistic path for a competitive Republican campaign.

HD26 and HD39 show real Republican fundraising advantages — 3.2-to-1 in HD26, 3.4-to-1 in HD39. On fundraising alone, both would move to Likely Republican.

We're holding both at Lean Republican instead. Democrats have named both seats priority targets this cycle, and both Republican incumbents are dealing with real unpopularity in their districts, something a fundraising gap doesn't capture. Money buys a campaign the ability to compete. It doesn't guarantee an incumbent is well-liked.

HD30 moves from Toss-up to Lean Republican, clearing the final true toss-up off the Utah House map. Republican Dave Parke holds a 2.2-to-1 fundraising lead over Democratic incumbent Jake Fitisemanu in a district that's 33% Republican and 23% Democratic by voter registration.

HD41 moves from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic. Incumbent John Arthur holds a 3.6-to-1 fundraising lead over Republican Darren Croft—wide enough to justify the stronger rating.

Two districts didn't change ratings this cycle, but the numbers are pulling against history.

HD37 is currently Lean Democratic, based on how the district has voted in the past. But Republican Casey Saxton has outraised Democratic incumbent Ashlee Matthews 2.5-to-1 this cycle. That's a real gap between what the district has done historically and what the money says right now. We're holding the rating at Lean Democratic, but if the fundraising gap holds into the next filing period, HD37 could be next to move.

HD59 is the mirror image. It's an open seat currently rated Lean Republican, and Republicans outnumber Democrats nearly 3-to-1. But Democrat Celeste Johnson is essentially tied in fundraising with Republican Luke Searle. An open seat, a heavy Republican registration advantage, and a financially competitive Democratic campaign: that combination can move fast. We're watching it.

Both ratings draw on the same data—eight statewide elections from 2016 to 2024, state legislative results from 2022 and 2024, and current voter registration—but they answer different questions.

The Likely Outcome rating is the raw share of the two-party vote a Republican or Democratic candidate has historically won in a district. It tells you who's expected to win. The Utah Competitiveness Index measures how that same district compares to Utah's statewide partisan baseline of roughly 65% Republican, showing which races are competitive within a heavily Republican state. A district can be safely Republican on the Likely Outcome scale while registering as only modestly Republican on the UCI — it wins comfortably in absolute terms even while underperforming Utah's average.