With convention wrapped and financial disclosures in, our Utah House Race Ratings have shifted. Several Republicans walked out of conventions unopposed in a handful of districts, and lopsided bank accounts have pushed several potential toss-ups off the board.
Five uncontested races
HD36, HD57, HD60, HD65, and HD19 will have no opposition on the November ballot. HD36 moves from Lean Republican to Safe Republican with incumbent GOP Rep. Jim Dunnigan unopposed.
The full updated Utah House ratings, including Utah Competitiveness Index scores and historical results, are available to Utah Political Watch annual subscribers.
Campaign cash tilts four once-competitive races
The latest disclosures show cash gaps big enough to knock four districts out of the truly competitive column, at least for now.
HD26 and HD27, both previously rated Toss-up, move to Lean Republican and Likely Republican, respectively. In HD26, incumbent Rep. Matt MacPherson holds a 96-to-1 cash advantage over Democrat Michael Finch and Forward Party candidate Travis Alico.
In HD27, Rep. Anthony Loubet enjoys a large cash lead over Democrat Liz Oates and Forward Party candidate Jeffrey Marshall, who do not have the financial resources to be competitive at this stage.
HD43 moves from Toss-up to Likely Republican. Republican Steve Eliason reports $42,304 in cash on hand; Democratic challenger Ofa Matagi reports $0. At this point, the race is not competitive.
HD10 moves from Toss-up to Lean Democratic. Democrat Rosemary Lesser, a former incumbent trying to reclaim the seat, has $28,319 in cash on hand. Republican nominee Jim Alvey is $2,023 in debt. Lesser's money edge and name ID make her the favorite for now, though Republicans are expected to fund their nominee as the race develops.
The updated House map now has 30 Safe Republican seats, 18 Likely Republican, 12 Lean Republican. Democrats hold safe or likely ratings in 11 seats and 3 that are rated as Lean Democrat, all in Salt Lake County. The lone remaining true Toss-up is HD30.
Republicans on track to keeping their supermajority
Republicans hold a two-thirds supermajority in the 75-seat Utah House and need 50 seats to maintain it. With 30 Safe Republican seats alone, the majority isn’t in doubt. The potential slippage is in the Lean Republican tier—12 seats where Republicans are favored but not comfortably—especially if national Democratic winds blow their way into November.
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