Incumbents usually waltz through congressional primaries, leaning on a massive advantage in name ID and money. But Utah’s newly redrawn 3rd Congressional District scrambles that playbook. Most Republican voters here have never seen Rep. Celeste Maloy on a ballot, and the map makes Tuesday’s primary feel a lot like an open seat.
The voter file backs that up, and it should make Maloy’s campaign wary.
According to voter registration figures shared with Utah Politcal Watch by election data firm L2, just over 60% of the roughly 270,000 registered Republicans in the new 3rd District have never seen Maloy on a ballot. The new map shuffled the lines so dramatically that nearly two-thirds of the district is territory she has never represented or campaigned in, and where voters have no reason to feel any loyalty to her.
In big chunks of the district, it’s functionally an open seat.
Map math
Seven counties carried over from Maloy’s previous district into the new 3rd: Washington, Iron, Kane, Beaver, Garfield, Wayne and Piute. Those are the only places where voters have had a chance to pull the lever for her before. They account for just under 40% of registered Republicans in the district.
Every other county is new territory.
Those new voters are dominated by a single county that accounts for more than a third of the district’s registered Republicans. The eastern half of Utah County that is part of the new 3rd has just under 100,000 registered Republicans. Washington County adds another 72,000. Together, those two counties represent nearly two-thirds of the Republicans who could vote in this primary.
Utah County is entirely new to Maloy. Washington County carried over, but recent results suggest it’s not exactly friendly territory.
Phil Lyman, a former state legislator from San Juan County, ran for governor in 2024. Even though he lost to Spencer Cox in the GOP primary, he built a statewide profile. His base of support is in southeastern Utah, and much of it now sits inside the new CD3.
Looking at 2024 primary election vote totals in the carryover counties, Lyman ran ahead of Maloy in Washington County by 6,669 votes, in Iron County by 31 and in Wayne County by 6. Maloy outpaced Lyman in Beaver by 251, Garfield by 157, Kane by 55 and Piute by 4.
The net result across the seven carryover counties: Lyman leads by approximately 6,249 votes. That margin is almost entirely driven by Washington County.
That's not a small problem. Washington County is the largest county in Maloy’s supposed home turf, and Lyman ran ahead of her by nearly 6,700 votes two years ago. Colby Jenkins, her 2024 Republican primary challenger, beat her in Washington County by almost the same margin.
The 2023 special primary makes it worse. When Maloy first ran following Rep. Chris Stewart’s resignation, she cleared 50% in that three-way primary in five counties—Iron, Kane, Beaver, Garfield and Piute. Washington County was not on that list.
The five counties where Maloy won majorities in the 2023 and 2024 primary elections have a combined 30,952 registered Republicans. Washington County alone has 71,944. Her strongest base is outnumbered more than 2-to-1 by a single county where Lyman already ran ahead of her.
Turnout: Who actually shows up
There’s no single answer to what Tuesday’s electorate will look like. For reference, 2024 GOP primary turnout in Utah was 47.65%. That projects to roughly 124,000 votes cast districtwide on Tuesday, so the winner needs about 62,000.
Off-year primaries skew toward highly engaged and motivated voters who show up when everyone else stays home. In Utah, that often means smaller, more rural counties punch above their weight.
Model a scenario where the Utah County portion of the 3rd turns out at 70% of the district’s average—reasonable, since Utah County lagged the statewide average in 2024—while Lyman’s southeastern base and the seven carryover counties turn out at 125% of the average. Under those conditions, Utah County’s share of the vote drops from 36.5% to roughly 25%. The carryover counties, where Lyman has a structural edge, jump from 38.9% of registration to nearly half of all votes cast.
That scenario—engaged rural voters overperforming, lower-information suburban voters underperforming—is the historical normal pattern in primaries like this. Under that model, Lyman’s path gets a lot easier. Maloy needs Utah County to behave differently than Republican primary electorates usually do.
What each candidate must do
For Maloy: Utah County is the key. With about 46,600 projected votes at 47.65% turnout, it’s the only county big enough to offset Lyman’s edge in the carryover counties. She needs to win it by a significant margin—55%–45% yields roughly a 9,300-vote cushion—and she needs Utah County turnout to match its registration share. She cannot afford a scenario where suburban Utah County stays home while Lyman’s base floods the polls.
She also has to limit damage in Washington County. A 6,669-vote deficit in any single county is significant hole to dig out of. If Lyman comes close to replicating that, Maloy needs a lot of other things to break her way.
For Lyman: His path runs through replicating his 2024 performance in Washington County, or coming close. Then let his eastern Utah base and whatever share of Utah County he can peel off cover the rest. He doesn’t need to win Utah County. He needs to prevent Maloy from running away with it.
If rural and eastern Utah voters turn out at above-average rates, while Utah County underperforms, it makes his coalition larger as a share of the actual electorate.
One data point no ad can change before Tuesday: about 164,000 registered Republicans in this district have never had the chance to vote for or against Celeste Maloy. They don’t have a history with her.
Maloy is asking 61% of her electorate to hire someone they’ve never worked with before. Lyman is asking those same voters to take a chance on someone new. In a district that feels brand-new, that’s the whole race.
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