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Days until the deadline for the Utah Legislature to approve a final congressional map proposal and submit it to the court (10/6/2025) - 5
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Could redrawn congressional map backfire on Republicans?
As lawmakers prepare to vote on new congressional maps on Monday, one map proposal has reportedly emerged as the frontrunner. However, Utah Republicans may have accidentally created a vulnerability that could carry electoral consequences for the state’s dominant political party.
Lawmakers have proposed seven of the nearly 100 maps up for comment on the redistricting website. Five of those, labeled Option A-E, came from the GOP majority. One map has been proposed by Democrats Sen. Luz Escamilla and Rep. Doug Owens, and another is from Sen. Daniel Thatcher of the Forward Party.
Several people familiar with discussions tell Utah Political Watch that Option C is the most likely one to be approved when lawmakers meet on Monday to pick a final map to submit to the court.
It makes some sense that lawmakers would be leaning in that direction. Options A, B, D, and E each create one district that would have been carried by the Democratic presidential candidate in the 2024 and 2020 elections. Republican Donald Trump would have prevailed in all four districts under Option C.
Weirdly, though, Option C could prove to be the most favorable for Democrats. The map appears to create two rock-solid Republican seats across the northern and southwestern parts of the state. Republican Donald Trump would have carried these two seats by more than 28 points in 2024, while the remaining two could be more competitive.
District 2, which covers the western half of Salt Lake and all of Tooele County, would have gone for Trump by a little more than 6 points in 2024 and about 5 points in 2020.
District 3, which stretches from the eastern part of Salt Lake County across the southwestern part of Utah, looks to be even more evenly divided. Trump would have narrowly carried this seat by 2.28% in 2024 and 0.52% in 2020.
We previously reported that Democrat Ben McAdams is seriously considering running. He is likely the strongest potential Democratic candidate given his high name recognition and ability to raise money.
Option C could lead to some heartburn for GOP Reps. Burgess Owens and Mike Kennedy.
Owens barely defeated McAdams by 3,765 votes in 2020. Republican Donald Trump carried that same district by 9 points that same year.
Trump carried Kennedy's District 3 by nearly 19 points in 2024. The GOP advantage in his district under Option C drops by more than 12%, which could make a re-election battle tough for the freshman member of Congress.
Just how competitive Democrats could be hinges on who the party ends up nominating and how much money they can raise for the race. Perhaps Republicans are betting that Democrats might only be able to field one candidate with a chance of winning, and they will be able to counter that with a massive amount of outside spending.
That calculus could be right. Outside of McAdams, the Democratic bench in Utah is pretty thin.
The legislature's Redistricting Committee has set a meeting for Monday morning at 8:00 am ahead of the special session to vote on a final map submission to the court later that day.