Barring a miracle, the GOP is on track for a midterm shellacking in 2026, and the fundamentals tell a brutal tale.
⏰ Tick Tock
24 days - Utah Forward Party nominating convention (4/11/2026)
38 days - Utah State Republican and Democratic State Party nominating conventions (4/25/2026)
97 days - Utah's 2026 primary election (6/23/2026)
230 days - 2026 midterm elections (11/3/2026)
965 days - 2028 presidential election (11/7/2028)
Since World War II, the party that holds the White House has managed to gain seats in the U.S. House only twice—1998 and 2002. Both times, the president was popular: Clinton rode a booming economy even amid the Lewinsky scandal, and Bush’s approval hit 90% after 9/11.
Political scientist Seth Masket created a simple forecasting model using three variables to forecast the number of seats the President’s party should win in the midterms:
Economic growth: stronger growth, smaller losses for the president’s party.
President’s average approval rating on Labor Day.
How many House seats the president’s party already holds (a larger majority could be vulnerable to more seat losses).
Right now, President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 39%, and the GOP holds 218 seats in Congress. The economy has been flat-to-weak for several quarters.
Here’s what Masket’s formula tells us: with 0% growth, Republicans lose about 48 House seats. Even at 3% growth, they would still be on track to lose roughly 32 seats. Any of those outcomes hands Democrats the gavel in 2027.
How reliable is this forecast? Who knows? We have a lot of other factors in play this year, including several mid-decade redistrictings, the likelihood that Trump will again play a large (and probably negative) role in Republican candidate selections, the possibility that Trump’s popularity will drop a good deal as this war continues, Trump’s own efforts to reduce voter turnout in Democratic-leaning areas, and more.
None of that changes the basic story: a weak economy and Trump’s dismal approval rating equal a bad map for Republicans in the 2026 midterms.