Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind
At the current pace, the Republican-backed bid to repeal Utah’s Prop 4—the 2018 anti-gerrymandering measure—won’t make the November ballot. The campaign logged 2,354 new verified signatures in the latest update.
Key statistics
2,354 verified signatures added yesterday.
Total verified: 50,682 (36% of the statewide goal).
To stay on track: 2,815 verified signatures per working day through March 7.
Scenario 1
—recent pace (≈1,300/day): short by 48,466 statewide.
Scenario 2
—Overall average (1,877/day): short by 29,998.
Scenario 3
—best five-day clip (2,857/day): clears the statewide bar by 1,352.
Organizers must submit at least 140,748 signatures from registered voters statewide by Feb. 14; county clerks have until March 7 to verify.
Districts still lagging
Even if they hit the statewide total, they still won’t qualify unless they also reach 8% of registered voters in 26 of Utah’s 29 state Senate districts (a separate legal threshold). So far, they haven’t met the 8% bar in a single district.
District 27: 96.75% of goal (+461 yesterday); needs 185 more.
District 25: 69.18%; needs 1,519.
District 26: 65.18%; needs 1,803.
District 29: 60.03%; needs 2,151.
District 28: 55.58%; needs 2,415.
Twenty districts sit at 45% or below; seven are under 20%.
Four districts added fewer than 15 signatures yesterday.
Clearing 8% in 26 districts would take a massive surge between now and the March 7 verification cutoff. Even at their best clip (2,857/day) sustained through March 7, they’d likely hit the district threshold in only about 14 districts—still 12 short.
In other words, the statewide math barely works right now; the district math doesn’t.