Utah Political Watch is updating two 2026 Utah Senate race ratings after new campaign finance disclosures showed lopsided money races in several potentially competitive districts.
The pattern across most of the 2026 Senate contests is clear: Republican nominees have built significant cash advantages over their Democratic opponents. In SD23, Republican Keith Grover holds a 109-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage. In SD28, incumbent Evan Vickers’ edge is 408-1. Those gaps reinforce the current ratings and require no changes.
The full updated Senate ratings, including the Utah Competitiveness Index scores and historical election data for every district, are available to Utah Political Watch annual subscribers.
Two races tell a different story.
SD19 moves from Lean Republican to Likely Republican
Republican incumbent Kirk Cullimore reports $195,321 in cash on hand. Democrat Shana Anderson reports $1,076. That 181-1 gap makes a credible Democratic campaign in SD 19 effectively impossible right now. Yes, the Utah Competitiveness Index pegs SD19 at R+0.8, reflecting the district’s competitive partisan history, the financial reality on the ground points decisively toward the Republican. The rating moves to Likely Republican.
SD12 moves from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Democratic incumbent Karen Kwan reports $53,310 in cash on hand. Republican nominee Deidre Tyler reports $0. In a district that already leans solidly Democratic, a well-funded incumbent versus an unfunded challenger is not a contest. The rating moves to Likely Democratic.
Which Utah Senate races could be competitive in 2026? Find out with our exclusive ratings.
Bottom line for the 2026 Utah Senate map: three Safe Republican seats, six Likely Republican seats, one Lean Republican seat—SD 5, the only genuinely competitive race left—and four Democratic-held seats rated Likely Democratic or Safe Democratic.
View our full Utah Senate race ratings here.