August 4, 2025
⏰ Tick Tock
Days to Utah's 2025 municipal primary elections (8/12/2025) -8
Days until Election Day (11/4/2025) - 92
Days until the 2026 midterm elections (11/3/2026) - 458
Days until the 2028 presidential election (11/7/2028) - 1,191
Stagflation fears return
A prominent economist has a grim view of the economy, warning the U.S. is on the "brink" of a recession. Some are even using the dreaded "s-word"—stagflation.
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi says there are some troubling indicators in the economic data from last week, painting a picture of an economy running out of steam.
Consumer spending is flat.
The construction and manufacturing sectors are contracting.
Inflation is rising while employment is falling.
The culprits behind the economy’s downward spiral are no mystery: President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the administration’s crackdown on immigration.
“The tariffs are cutting increasingly deeply into the profits of American companies and the purchasing power of American households. Fewer immigrant workers means a smaller economy.”
The double whammy of rising inflation and a weak job market suggests the economy is showing signs of stagflation, an economic nightmare last felt most acutely in the 1970s during the Ford and Carter administrations.
Investor Danny Moses - known for his role in “The Big Short” - warns that the economy has yet to see the full impact from Trump’s tariffs, which will likely make economic conditions worse.
“Pick your poison,” Moses said. “It’s either going to hit corporate margins, and earnings will go down, which means the market’s expensive, or it’ll be passed on to the consumers and be inflationary. I think it’s going to be a combination of both.”
Monday morning's headlines
Utah and the west
Podcast: The feds want Utah's voting records. [Utah Political Watch]
Utah's local primary elections are coming soon and, with new laws, have tight deadlines. [Utah News Dispatch]
Utah's laws about minors having sex have changed over the years. Here's what they are now. [Salt Lake Tribune]
What to know about measles in Utah as back-to-school approaches. [KUER]
Utah vaccine exemption rate rises to No. 2 in nation. [Axios]
Officials issue warnings after harmful algal blooms detected in Utah Lake, portions of Jordan River, canals. [KSL]
Utah nonprofit loses $1.2M grant after Trump's DEI orders, while other agencies face confusion and "chaos." [Salt Lake Tribune]
Nation
The outlook for a funding deal in Congress to avoid a shutdown before the Sept. 30 deadline is pretty poor right now. [Punchbowl News]
Senators left Washington for their summer recess without a deal to confirm dozens of President Donald Trump's nominees. When they return, they may change the rules to break the logjam. [Politico]
Democrats are hoping for a blue wave next year to give them control of one, or even both, houses of Congress. It may not happen. [Politico]
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is threatening to remove from office the Democrats who fled the state to stop the GOP-led redistricting effort. [Quorum Report]
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker says the state will protect Texas Democrats who fled to block GOP efforts to redraw congressional maps. [The Hill]
Missouri Republicans are considering a plan to redraw congressional districts to help the party gain an additional seat. [Missouri Independent]
The White House does not plan to require health insurers to provide coverage for in vitro fertilization services, which would break one of President Trump's key campaign promises. [Washington Post]
GOP Rep. Nancy Mace launched her bid for governor of South Carolina on Monday morning. [Charleston Post and Courier]
World
China is restricting the flow of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers. [Wall Street Journal]
The OPEC+ oil cartel announced it will raise production by 547,000 barrels a day. [Financial Times]
Economy
U.S. consumers cut back on spending during the first half of the year. [Wall Street Journal]
Banks and tech companies are shrugging off the impact of President Trump's tariffs, while consumer brands are feeling the pinch. [Financial Times]
Environment
Wildfires in Canada are worsening air quality across the Midwest and Northeast U.S. [Bloomberg]
Technology
Big Tech is spending so much on artificial intelligence that it's starting to reshape the U.S. economy. [Washington Post]