Utah Political Watch has rated all 15 Utah State Senate seats on the 2026 ballot using historical election data from eight statewide races between 2016 and 2024, combined with actual legislative results from 2022.
The table and interactive map below show the Likely Outcome and Utah Competitiveness Index rating for every Senate district on the ballot this November.
Methodology
Utah Political Watch's legislative race ratings are based on historical election results mapped to current district boundaries. We analyzed eight statewide races held between 2016 and 2024—including presidential, gubernatorial, and attorney general contests—combined with actual state legislative results from 2022 and 2024. More recent elections are weighted more heavily than older ones. Races with significant third-party distortions, including the 2022 U.S. Senate race featuring independent Evan McMullin, are excluded. Ratings will be updated as candidate filing information, campaign finance reports, and other developments warrant.