Utah Political Watch has rated all 75 Utah House districts using historical election data from eight statewide races between 2016 and 2024, combined with actual legislative results from 2022 and 2024.
The complete House ratings—including likely outcome, Utah Competitiveness Index, presidential results in every district, voter registration breakdowns, and historical race data—are available exclusively to Utah Political Watch subscribers.
Full supporting data for every House district—including 2024 and 2020 presidential results, voter registration breakdowns, historical legislative race results, and detailed methodology—is available exclusively to Utah Political Watch paid subscribers.
Methodology
Utah Political Watch's legislative race ratings are based on historical election results mapped to current district boundaries. We analyzed eight statewide races held between 2016 and 2024—including presidential, gubernatorial, and attorney general contests—combined with actual state legislative results from 2022 and 2024. More recent elections are weighted more heavily than older ones. Races with significant third-party distortions, including the 2022 U.S. Senate race featuring independent Evan McMullin, are excluded. Ratings will be updated as candidate filing information, campaign finance reports, and other developments warrant.