Utah's New House Map: GOP Scramble in Salt Lake County

Utah finally settled its congressional map for the 2026 midterms, and the filing window opens Monday. It’s time for a high-stakes game of Republican musical chairs, which is complicated by a newly minted Salt Lake County-centered district that leans heavily blue.

Whoever wins the Democratic nomination in the new 1st District starts with the wind at their back, which explains why there’s a stampede of eight Democratic candidates already in the race.

The Cook Political Report rates the new district as “Solid Democratic” with a partisan voting index of D+12. Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would have carried the district by a hefty margin, more than 20 points, in 2020 and 2024. Democrat Caroline Gleich would have topped Republican John Curtis there by 14 points in the 2024 U.S. Senate contest.

That doesn’t mean the district is a lost cause for Republicans. Voter registration data provided by L2 shows Republicans make up a narrow plurality of voters at just under 35%, independents sit just over 33%, and Democrats are about 25%.

That suggests there is a very narrow path to victory for a Republican candidate in the district, albeit a narrow one. It would likely take a moderate or centrist who can consolidate Republicans and win independents. Utah’s four current GOP members of Congress are too skewed pro-Trump to pull off a win on this turf.

That means there are three seats for four Republicans. Where do they run? We start to find out Monday.

One wrinkle might resolve itself before the filing period opens.

Sources close to Rep. Burgess Owens say he’s expected to announce he’s retiring rather than chase a fourth term.

Reps. Mike Kennedy and Celeste Maloy both live in the new 3rd District and have been playing a quiet game of chicken over who gets to run there. Sources say Kennedy was prepared to challenge Maloy in the 3rd if Owens decided to run for another term in the new 4th District, where Owens lives. With Owens likely out, Kennedy could still challenge Maloy, but the smarter bet is that he pivots and runs in the 4th.

Rep. Blake Moore has already staked out the new 2nd district, which covers most of Northern Utah. He’s been gathering signatures for weeks and is closing in on qualifying for the primary ballot.

So which Republicans try to conquer the new blue district? State Sen. Dan McCay is one possibility. He’s flirted with a congressional run for years and faces two Republican challengers in Senate District 18. It’s fair to wonder how much his heart is in another legislative term—he pledged to drop his re-election bid if his wife won the race for Riverton mayor last year.

Former Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs is also said to be weighing a run. He won the delegate vote for U.S. Senate at the 2024 GOP convention but finished second in the primary to John Curtis. In a D+12 district, Staggs’s connections to Trump would be a liability: Trump endorsed him in 2024, and he landed a Small Business Administration appointment in the second Trump administration.

Watch the hotboard as the filing period opens. Omissions or updates? Let us know.